UFC took another trip to Seattle last weekend and struck gold. Unfortunately, that action will be borderline impossible to replicate inside the walls of the Meta Apex at UFC Vegas 115 this Saturday.
Lightweights occupy this weekend’s spotlight as Renato Moicano seeks a rebound victory against the surging Scotsman, Chris Duncan. Moicano has come up short in his past two bouts, starting with his impromptu title shot against former champion Islam Makhachev in early 2025. Another loss to Beneil Dariush followed, but the 36-year-old now intends to play spoiler for Duncan, who at age 32 has been must-see TV on his own four-fight win streak, with only a single loss marring his seven-fight UFC run.
This matchmaking is fine, but is far from a main-event-caliber collision. One-time strawweight title challenger Virna Jandiroba also returns for the first time since her losing championship effort; she’ll take on fellow strong grappler, Tabatha Ricci, promising some fun groundwork in a pivotal contender clash.
In terms of stakes, the co-main event is the only fight with any real meat on the bone. Take it away and UFC Vegas 115 is legitimately a UFC version of a regional MMA show that couldn’t be any more missable.
👑 UFC Vegas 115’s lineup Crown grade: F-. 👑
Betting odds via BetMGM.
155 pounds: Renato Moicano (+145) vs. Chris Duncan (-175)
The more I’ve dissected this fight, the stranger it plays out in the mind.
Admittedly, it’s felt like Moicano has lost more than just twice in a row. Why? Well, it’s easy to remember he nearly lost his two most recent wins over Jalin Turner and Benoit Saint Denis. The latter less so, but things weren’t looking good when he let the one-eyed Frenchman rally in their final round.
Duncan has been a notable breed of chaos throughout his UFC run. He’s found his footing after a rocky first three appearances and returned to his finishing ways, and there’s been a common theme throughout those recent results: Protect your neck.
The Scotsman has been a proper slugger, channeling his club-and-sub abilities to the fullest by latching on fight-finishing chokes. Although Moicano specializes in grappling and has only been subbed twice, he’s become an increasingly hittable target in his later years.Â
Ultimately, this matchup will come down to control. Moicano’s best chances to win come from a top position, where he can deliver damage akin to that of his Saint Denis win. He just does not dive into matchups with a heavy takedown approach. The early exchanges will dictate the pace, and Duncan will get the best of his Brazilian counterpart. Add the element of two extra rounds into the mix and this becomes a proper coming-out party.
Pick: Duncan
115 pounds: Virna Jandiroba (-125) vs. Tabatha Ricci (+105)
Still just 31 years old, Ricci has failed to get over the hump in her career.
“Baby Shark” has consistently beaten most of the fighters she’s “supposed” to and only fallen short when getting that higher-ranked challenge who could propel her into title talks. See: Her lone strawweight losses to Yan Xiaonan and Loopy Godinez.
To use our ever-beloved MMA math, Jandiroba scored dominant victories over both of those fighters.
Obviously that’s not the greatest indicator for MMA matchups, but it is a decent one here.
Plain and simple, Jandiroba is the superior grappler and has proven it against significantly better competition — and significantly better grapplers than Ricci.
Ricci has always been great at chaining her takedowns behind her striking combinations, and the same can be said for Jandiroba, so whoever gets to dictate the action first will have a solid advantage. But again, Jandiroba is simply more polished and technical offensively and defensively.
Pick: Jandiroba
205 pounds: Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (-1600) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+900)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev gets a matchup here that lines up cleanly in his favor — in case the odds didn’t give that one away. He’s the more composed, disciplined fighter, who has smashed through all but one of his eight opponents thus far.
Brendson Ribeiro, on the other hand, has made a habit of creating his own problems. The aggression is there, but so are the defensive holes and questionable decisions that get exposed against steady opponents.
This is the type of fight Yakhyaev takes all day, every day, and twice on Sunday. He’s sharper, more reliable and far less likely to beat himself. The dude is nasty and exactly the type of fighter the light heavyweight division needs.
Pick: Yakhyaev
135 pounds: Ethyn Ewing (-145) vs. Rafael Estevam (+120)
Alright, this one has some potential to be pretty fun.Â
After being one of the better stories to close out last year, Ethyn Ewing now looks to avoid being a flash in the pan following his stellar short-notice debut win over Malcolm Wellmaker. He’s composed, sticks to his game, and doesn’t tend to give fights away with mistakes, which already puts him a step ahead in most spots at his level.
On the other hand, Rafael Estevam brings aggression that can lead to defensive gaps and moments when things get a little too loose. Nonetheless, he’s been efficient enough to earn three straight unanimous decisions to start his UFC career and remain undefeated. His biggest threat has been with his ground-and-pound, which could bode well if he pursues a grapple-heavy approach to tire Ewing.
Ewing’s momentum just feels a bit stronger off that great performance in November.
Pick: Ewing
145 pounds: Tommy McMillen (-1400) vs. Manolo Zecchini (+800)
It’s not too often we get two -1000-plus favorites on a UFC main card. That should tell you all you need to know about UFC Vegas 115.
Tommy McMillen is in the same boat as Yakhyaev here with a nice showcase bout. The undefeated 28-year-old has been an absolute steamroller in his short career. Prior to his Contender Series win, he finished all of his opponents in the first round — and usually in short order. Standing or on the ground, the man has killer instinct for days.
Manolo Zecchini is much more about moments, as seen in his Venator run. He entered UFC off two good wins in the Italian promotion, but he’s been finished in three of his four losses. Defensive openings are often present with Zecchini, which spells grave danger against someone like McMillen — hence the wide moneyline disparity.
Pick: McMillen
145 pounds: José Mauro Delano (-325) vs. Robert Ruchała (+260)
José Delano isn’t flashy, but he’s exactly the kind of polished, versatile featherweight the UFC respects. Contender Series standout, regional champ. Strikes clean, moves well and mixes in grappling without looking sloppy. He controls distance, lands first and forces opponents into uncomfortable spots.Â
He just screams UFC newcomer in 2026, doesn’t he?
Robert RuchaÅ‚a is a tough nut to crack, but one that can be cracked. His KSW experience is key; at age 27, he’s obviously comfortable with big stages. Unfortunately for RuchaÅ‚a, his UFC debut also showed he can get outclassed by someone with more refined timing. Against Delano, he could spend most of the night reacting if he doesn’t make this one dirty.
It’s practically LFA vs. KSW in the UFC. Which level do you value more? I’ll take RuchaÅ‚a, spoiling Delano’s debut and scoring his first UFC win.
Pick: Ruchała
Preliminary Notes
UFC Vegas 115’s prelims are all about the returns. Melissa Gatto has been a flyweight prospect I’ve had high hopes for since she arrived in UFC five years ago; she just hasn’t been a model of consistency, as she ends a two-year layoff after a nasty body shot finish of Tamires Vidal in her last appearance. Gatto, 29, has what it takes to push into the flyweight ranks. It’s only a matter of increasing her fighting frequency.
Remember Lando Vannata? Yeah. I thought he was retired, too. But here we are, wheeling him back out off of a three-year layoff to fight at the Apex. Win or lose, Vannata has consistently been a fun fighter, so it’s a welcome return.
Quick picks:
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Guilherme Pat (-105) def. Thomas Petersen (-115)
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Alessandro Costa (-450) def. Stewart Nicoll (+325)
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Darrius Flowers (+175) def. Lando Vannata (-210)
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Hailey Cowan (+150) def. Alice Pereira (+125)
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Azamat Bekoev (-650) def. Tresean Gore (+475)
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Melissa Gatto (+110) def. Dione Barbosa (-135)
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Dakota Hope (+130) def. Kai Kamaka III (-160)
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