In 2025, Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford had one of the more efficient seasons of his NFL career, tossing a league-leading 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns, while only throwing eight interceptions in the regular season and one in the playoffs.
With Stafford returning for the 2026 season, Pro Football Focus’ Mark Chichester has named Stafford as a top candidate for a regression, stating that Stafford is likely to throw more interceptions this season compared to last year.
Chichester’s point comes down to the number of times Stafford threw interception-worthy passes that weren’t picked last season, while arguing Stafford’s efficiency would be unprecedented if it continues into 2026.
At this point, Stafford’s relationship with positive interception variance has become a story of its own. His 2024 season ranks as the luckiest in the entire 10-year dataset (+7.3 net luck), while his 2025 season ranks third (+6.8). Producing two consecutive seasons at the extreme top of the interception-luck leaderboard is already highly unusual. A third straight year would be virtually unprecedented based on the historical data, which offers little evidence that this type of variance is sustainable.
The numbers make the regression case difficult to ignore. Stafford generated 21 turnover-worthy throws in 2025, a total that would normally translate to just over 10 interceptions at league-average conversion rates. Only eight were intercepted, while defenders dropped nine additional would-be picks.
He also threw just one interception on 695 non-turnover-worthy attempts, despite league-average outcomes projecting closer to five or six. Altogether, Stafford finished with only nine interceptions on a passing profile that league-average variance would typically push closer to the 15- or 16-interception range.
While Stafford could see an uptick in interceptions, two factors that are currently in play could keep the ball out of defenders’ hands. Stafford has only thrown more than eight interceptions in the regular season twice during his Rams career.
That was in his first and third seasons with the team. Stafford’s complex understanding of the McVay offense has clearly translated into an efficient passing attack. He no longer needs to play the type of “hero ball” he did in Detroit, allowing him to be more conservative with his choices.
Also, when the Rams had most of their weapons and ran their 13 personnel to maximum efficiency, Stafford had a five-game run with 18 touchdowns and zero interceptions. The Rams are expected to use 13 personnel heavily in 2026 after re-signing Tyler Higbee and drafting Max Klare.
This article originally appeared on Rams Wire: Rams QB Matthew Stafford named a top regression candidate in 2026
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