UFC Vegas 118 is all about momentum, with former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad looking to get back on track and Gabriel Bonfim aiming to keep building his.
Last year wasn’t kind to Muhammad, whose welterweight title reign already feels like a fever dream at this stage. His stellar title win over Leon Edwards was followed by back-to-back losses at the hands of Jack Della Maddalena and Ian Machado Garry. The former champ is now back inside the UFC’s Meta Apex, tasked with the rising contender Bonfim. Outside of a loss to Nicolas Dalby, the Brazilian has been perfect in his 20-fight career.
The co-main event of UFC Vegas 118 sees middleweights clash, as perennial contender Brendan Allen takes a wildly odd backward step after upsetting Reinier de Ridder. He’ll be met with the surging Edmen Shahbazyan, who appears poised to finally vault into serious contention after experiencing several early speed bumps in his once-promising career.
UFC Vegas 118 is a bit of a weird card — the name value is present throughout Saturday’s lineup, but not necessarily overly eye-catching. It could function as an on-the-road Fight Night event for the UFC in 2026, which is better than can be said about most Apex cards these days, but wherever it was held, it would still only be serviceable at best.
👑 UFC Vegas 118’s lineup Crown grade: C-. 👑
170 pounds: Belal Muhammad (-125) vs. Gabriel Bonfim (+105)
There appears to be a lot of revisionist history coming into play these days with Muhammad’s run to welterweight supremacy. I’m never one to be that guy, and still believe his championship was well earned, but Father Time defeats all.
With the exception of Sean Brady, everyone Muhammad, 37, beat on his win streak was a seasoned veteran on the wrong side of 30. In his past two defeats, that youth difference was extremely noticeable. Della Maddalena’s durability and speed shined brightly with his crisp boxing, battering Muhammad over five rounds. The same could be said for Garry, who picked Muhammad apart at will and thwarted all seven takedown attempts.
Bonfim, 28, is entering his prime and starting to emerge as a real player in the loaded 170-pound division. A consistent finishing machine, Bonfim wiped off any lingering stench from his split decision over Stephen Thompson with a chilling knockout of Randy Brown in November. He’s dangerous everywhere, and that’s plenty of cause for concern to Muhammad.
This fight essentially comes down to Muhammad avoiding those dangerous moments when he’s in harm’s way. The former champ will be required to take some to land some — and, ideally, close the gaps to secure his dominant grappling positions, and smother and tire out Bonfim. Despite his age and experience, Muhammad has yet to see his chin cracked. He’s only been finished once, and that was an admitted anomaly in 2016.
For this matchup, in particular, Bonfim’s knee knockout over Brown might not have done him any favors. He faded down the stretch of the Thompson fight, and didn’t get a chance to prove he’d sured that hole up by finishing Brown early in Round 2. The longer this fight goes with Muhammad’s pace and pressure, the more he’ll overwhelm Bonfim. It’s a bit of a coin flip, but I’m not ready to entirely count out Muhammad just yet.
Pick: Muhammad
185 pounds: Brendan Allen (-220) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (+180)
It’s still so bizarre that this is Allen’s next fight after upsetting de Ridder, and it may be more of a case of poor management on his end than anything else, really.
Nonetheless, Allen has quietly turned himself into one of the division’s most reliable contenders. After bouncing back from losses to top names, he rattled off statement wins over Marvin Vettori and the aforementioned de Ridder, reminding everyone that his combination of pressure, grappling and submission hunting can be a nightmare for most middleweights.
Meanwhile, Shahbazyan is trying to complete one of the sport’s more surprising turnarounds. Once hailed as a future title contender before crashing into a brick wall of veteran competition, Shahbazyan has rebuilt himself with three straight wins and still possesses the same fast hands and genuine knockout power that made him such a hyped prospect in the first place.
The problem is we’ve seen this movie before. Shahbazyan is dangerous early, but Allen is exactly the type of fighter who tends to expose Shahbazyan’s biggest weakness. Allen doesn’t need to win a kickboxing match. He just needs to survive the opening storm, get his hands on Shahbazyan and turn this into a grappling fight. Once that happens, the advantage swings heavily in his favor. The paths to victory are clear for each.
Shahbazyan is live for a first-round scare because he’s just better early on. But over 15 minutes, Allen is the far more trustworthy investment. Like Muhammad, he doesn’t get much finished, if ever.
Pick: Allen
155 pounds: Farès Ziam (-325) vs. Tom Nolan (+260)
It’s about time we start respecting Farès Ziam as one of the UFC’s most underrated lightweights. It’s almost like the 155-pound division can be two divisions in one sometimes, and we see that with cases like what the Frenchman has put together: Six straight wins, a completely overlooked spot in the rankings, and a game that’s evolved far beyond the lanky kickboxer who debuted back in 2019. He now mixes sharp distance striking with timely wrestling and clinch work, making him a much tougher puzzle than his reputation once suggested.
Tom Nolan isn’t exactly showing up to be a stepping stone, though. The Australian has rebounded from a disastrous UFC debut with four straight wins, reminding everyone why he was viewed as one of the promotion’s more intriguing prospects off Contender Series. He’s a large dude for lightweight and carries real finishing ability. Nolan’s comfort levels are only increasing fight by fight.
The problem for the Aussie here is that Ziam feels like the exact guy you don’t want to face when you’re trying to crack the rankings. Ziam is more experienced, more defensively sound, and has already proven he can win ugly, win clean, or find a finish if the opportunity presents itself. Nolan has the size and power to make things interesting, but Ziam has spent the past few years turning these types of tests into résumé builders.
Again, this is a bit of a coin flip. But momentum-wise, Ziam is really on a good run.
Pick: Ziam
135 pounds: Bryce Mitchell (-145) vs. Santiago Luna (+120)
Bryce Mitchell’s move to bantamweight has given him a chance to reset and try to establish himself as a real title threat. Dropping from featherweight initially sounded kind of counterproductive, just because bantamweight is arguably the deeper division, but stylistically it could be a more favorable division for Mitchell to climb higher. Grappling remains his calling card, and there still aren’t many fighters who enjoy spending 15 minutes tangled up with him — outside of the obvious examples, like Merab Dvalishvili and Umar Nurmagomedov.
Santiago Luna is an intriguing, undefeated prospect with a strong, well-rounded game and plenty of confidence. That alone makes him an interesting sophomore bout for Mitchell at 135 pounds. But this is also a massive jump in competition for Luna against a veteran who’s spent years facing ranked opposition and elite athletes.
Luna’s vicious combo work was on display in his last bout, and he might be the real deal — one day. But this feels like the kind of matchup designed to remind everyone that prospect status and proven ability aren’t the same thing. Mitchell has the perfect counter to the approach Luna is comfortable with. For me, it’s too much too soon.
Pick: Mitchell
205 pounds: Iwo Baraniewski (-375) vs. Junior Tafa (+280)
Iwo Baraniewski has been given every matchup to succeed as greatly as possible thus far in the UFC. The guy is an absolute cannon of a light heavyweight, having won all his fights in the first round, and his last three under 90 seconds. He is a true “don’t blink” fighter.
Junior Tafa, meanwhile, is still chasing knockouts after leaving heavyweight. The power is real, but so are the gaps in his game once he gets wrestled. He won’t have to worry about that in this one, but Baraniewski is simply the better fighter and on a warpath right now.
Pick: Baraniewski
Preliminary Notes
Marcus McGhee is back after suffering a hard-fought loss to the now two-time bantamweight champion Petr Yan. Despite his age of 36, “The Maniac” can still be a notable player in the 135-pound division, and there’s obviously no shame in the Yan loss, which was a wild fight to see booked in the first place.
Saturday’s prelims overall appear to be a likely rollercoaster. Expect mismatches and some stylistic lulls.
Quick picks:
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Alessandro Costa (-700) def. Matt Schnell (+500)
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Marcus McGhee (-475) def. John Yannis (+350)
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Édgar Cháirez (+115) def. Bruno Gustavo da Silva (-140)
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Chelsea Chandler (-125) def. Priscila Cachoeira (+105)
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Joanderson Brito (-210) def. Jordan Leavitt (+170)
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Jeisla Chaves (-400) def. Yuneisy Duben (+310)
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Ketlen Souza (-300) def. Ariane Carnelossi (+240)
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