The 2026 NCAA tournament begins on Tuesday night with the First Four matchups in Dayton, Ohio and continues for the next several weeks. With an estimated $3.3 billion wagered on March Madness (men’s and women’s tournaments combined), tourney time is one of the biggest betting events of the year.
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The NCAA tournament is all about volume, and we have 32 first-round games to study — and potentially wager on — for Thursday and Friday. Our college basketball handicappers — Corbie Craig, Matt Jacob, Matt Russell and Frank Schwab — are here to give their favorite wagers on every game.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM. This file will be updated as more best bets come in.
East Region
(14) North Dakota State vs. (3) Michigan State (-16.5, 143.5)
Jacob: Back in 2022, Michigan State barely survived its opening NCAA tournament game, eking out a 74-73 victory over No. 10 seed Davidson as a 1-point favorite. Since then, Spartans coach Tom Izzo has had his troops ready to roll from jump.
It started with a 72-62 rout of USC in the first round of the 2023 tournament, followed by a 69-51 pasting of Mississippi State in 2024, and an 87-62 thumping of Bryant last year.
Michigan State easily covered the point spread in all three contests. There’s no reason to think Sparty won’t continue that first-round spread-covering streak Thursday night.
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First off, North Dakota State is in way over its head. The Bison — who are just five games removed from an 84-62 loss to Big Sky foe St. Thomas — didn’t face a single Power-Four opponent all season. In fact, the biggest name on North Dakota State’s schedule was Oregon State, which beat the Bison 67-65 in the season opener (then proceeded to go .500 the rest of the way).
Not only is North Dakota State taking a huge step up in class here, but it is catching a rested and angry Michigan State squad that is coming off consecutive losses to arch-rival Michigan (90-80 in the regular season finale) and UCLA (88-84 in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals).
Michigan State also exited the Big Ten tourney early in each of the previous three seasons. You know what happened next: The Spartans’ first-round NCAA tournament opponents got buried. North Dakota State is about to join that club.
Bet: Michigan State -16.5
(16) Siena vs. (1) Duke (-28.5, 135.5)
Schwab: The line has been on the move since opening at -25.5 at some books. That has to be a reflection of the trend of the top teams being more dominant than usual over the last two NCAA tournaments, a storyline that will be tracked during this year’s event as well. Duke is dealing with injuries to two starters. Caleb Foster and his 8.5 points per game might return at some point in the tournament but probably not in the opener, though 6-foot-11 Patrick Ngongba II could return for Thursday’s game.
Either way, Duke is a machine. Siena doesn’t have much size to match Duke and doesn’t shoot 3s well enough to keep it close from beyond the arc.
Bet: Duke -28.5
South Region
(14) Penn vs. (3) Illinois (-24.5, 150.5)
Jacob: Illinois has scored at least 70 points in every game but one this season: a 74-61 loss to UConn on a neutral court in late November.
The Illini have hit 80 points in 21 games; reached 90 points eight times; and cleared 100 points three times. So there isn’t much doubt that Illinois will do its part to push its first-round game over the total — especially against an overmatched Penn squad that yields 73.3 points per contest.
The question is: Can the Quakers contribute to the cause? I believe so. For starters, Penn not only averages a more-than-respectable 76.1 PPG, but the Ivy League champs tallied 80-plus points in four of their final seven.
What about Illinois’ defense? The epitome of hit and miss. In 10 games dating to Feb. 4, the Illini shut down Northwestern (44 points), Indiana (51) and Oregon (54) — all at home — but got lit up by Michigan State (85), Wisconsin (92), UCLA (95), Michigan (84) and Wisconsin again in the Big Ten tournament (91).
[Schwab’s picks by region: East | South | Midwest | West]
Granted, the Michigan State, UCLA and both Wisconsin games went to overtime. Still, Illinois surrendered 86, 81, 78 and 71 in regulation in those four contests.
It’s also worth noting that Penn makes 38.6% of its 3-point shots — 15th best in the nation.
It might take some time for the Quakers to get their offense going. But once Illinois opens a comfortable second-half lead and empties the bench, Penn will have plenty of opportunities to fill the bucket during garbage time. Bank on this one comfortably hurdling the total.
Bet: Over 150.5
(11) VCU vs. (6) North Carolina (-2.5, 153.5)
Jacob: When the number for this game hit the wagering board Sunday evening, bettors across the land were asking the same question: How? How can a blueblood like North Carolina only be laying a couple of points against VCU?
Answer: No Caleb Wilson.
North Carolina’s stud freshman forward who paced the team in scoring, rebounding, assists, steals and blocks — and shot a blistering 57.8% from the field — suffered the first of two late-season hand injuries on Feb. 10 and is now done for the season.
To their credit, the Tar Heels weathered the storm without Wilson, winning five of their final eight games. But three of those victories came against ACC also-rans Pitt, Syracuse and Virginia Tech.
VCU comes into the NCAA tournament on a heater. The Rams have won six consecutive games, 16 of their last 17 and 21 of their last 24.
During their ongoing six-game winning streak, VCU has been remarkably consistent defensively, allowing between 62 and 65 points (63.7 PPG). I expect that defense to show out against North Carolina, which averaged just 68 points in six games against NCAA rournament teams after Wilson went down.
Another reason I’m with Russell in backing the Rams is their depth. Seven VCU players average more than 20 minutes of court time. Not only do all seven players average more than 7 points per contest, but six guys shoot better than 44% from the field and five drain more than 35% of their 3s.
Bet: VCU +2.5
West Region
(9) Utah State (-1.5, 146.5) vs. (8) Villanova
Jacob: The Mountain West Conference was hardly a juggernaut this season, as evidenced by the fact that the league received just one NCAA tournament bid: automatic qualifier Utah State.
The Aggies, though, are legit — and that is why the Selection Committee rewarded the Mountain West regular season and tournament champs with a No. 9 seed. And why the betting market has Utah State as a slight favorite over a No. 8 seed.
Utah State did drop its final three regular season road games — including ugly losses at San Diego State (89-72) and UNLV (92-65). But the Aggies avenged all three defeats in the conference tournament, crushing UNLV (80-60), Nevada (79-66) and San Diego State (73-62).
Admittedly, Utah State’s nonconference schedule was lacking. Its two most notable opponents were VCU (80-77 neutral-site win) and South Florida (74-61 road loss). That aside, the Aggies are top 30 in both the KenPom (30th) and NCAA Net (26th) rankings; Villanova is 33rd and 36th respectively.
The Wildcats had a strong first season under new head coach Kevin Willard. But aside from a 76-66 overtime win over Wisconsin on a neutral court back in December, Villanova doesn’t have a signature victory. It also doesn’t have the firepower to hang with a well-rounded Utah State squad that averages 82.5 PPG and makes nearly 50% of its shots.
Bet: Utah State -1.5
(10) Missouri vs. (7) Miami (FL) (-2.5, 147.5)
Jacob: I’m not exactly sure what Missouri did to warrant an at-large berth to the Big Dance.
By my count, the Tigers had five impressive victories. Two were back-to-back upsets of defending national champion and current No. 1 seed Florida (76-74 at home) and Kentucky (73-68 on the road). Missouri later eked out upsets over Texas A&M (86-85 on the road), Vanderbilt (81-80 at home) and Tennessee (73-69 at home).
On the flip side, the Tigers lost twice to Arkansas and got spanked at Oklahoma (80-64) after narrowly getting past the Sooners at home (88-87 in overtime). They also were completely filleted by Kansas (80-60) and Illinois (91-48) on neutral courts, as well as Alabama (90-64 road) and Texas (85-68 home).
Additionally, Missouri went one-and-done in the SEC tournament, as Kentucky got revenge with a 78-72 win. That capped a 13-game stretch in which the Tigers’ opponents averaged 79.9 PPG, with 10 of those foes tallying at least 78 points. Translation: Missouri’s defense has been an abomination of late.
Meanwhile, Miami went 9-3 to close the regular season — and the three losses were by margins of 3, 3 and 1 point. The Hurricanes then upset Louisville in the first round of the ACC tournament before bowing out against Virginia.
True, Miami lost 82-68 to Florida on a neutral court six weeks before Missouri (barely) upset the Gators. But look at the results of two other common opponents: The Canes thumped Ole Miss 75-66 and Notre Dame 81-69, both on the road. Mizzou traveled to both schools and fell 76-69 at Ole Miss and 76-71 at Notre Dame.
Bet: Miami (FL) -2.5
Midwest Region
(13) Hawai’i vs. (4) Arkansas (-15.5, 159.5)
Schwab: Hawai’i plays a unique no-help defense, and it works. The Rainbow Warriors are 43rd in college basketball in defensive efficiency via KenPom and the best in opponents’ assists per basket. Basically, the Rainbow Warriors will not allow any assisted baskets as they play one-on-one defense and never come off their man to help. Not helping at all on Arkansas superstar freshman Darius Acuff Jr. might lead to Acuff going for 50 points, but we’ll see. It’s a strange prep for Arkansas, and it could keep the game within the number.
Bet: Hawai’i +15.5
(13) Hofstra vs. (4) Alabama (-12.5, 159.5)
Jacob: It’s difficult for bettors to trust Alabama in the NCAA tournament — particularly in the early going. Going back to 2012, the school is 12-7 straight-up and 9-9-1 ATS in the Big Dance — including 5-1 SU but only 2-4 ATS in the first round.
The reason the Crimson Tide are untrustworthy? They treat defense like it’s optional. In the last four NCAA tournaments, first-round opponents Robert Morris (81 points), College of Charleston (96 points), Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (75 points) and Notre Dame (78 points) have scored at will against Alabama.
Staying true to their brand, the Tide were all offense, little defense again this season: They led the nation in scoring (91.7 points per game) and ranked 352nd out of 361 teams in points allowed (83.5 per game).
So it seems there are only two logical approaches to attacking Alabama’s game against Hofstra on Friday: Take the points or pass. I’m doing neither, simply because I don’t believe Hofstra can exploit the Tide’s glaring weakness.
The Pride average 75.6 PPG and shoot just 44.2% from the field. The counterargument, of course, is that Hofstra’s defensive numbers are strong — it ranks 19th nationally in points allowed (66.1) and fourth in field-goal defense (38.7%). Problem is, the Pride haven’t come close to seeing an offense as lethal as Alabama’s.
What’s more, Hofstra’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating per KenPom (95th) is far worse than Alabama’s (67th).
As the saying goes, styles make fights. And in this case, I see Alabama’s style overwhelming Hofstra.
Bet: Alabama -12.5
(15) Queens vs. (2) Purdue (-25.5, 163.5)
Schwab: This line opened at -22.5 or -23.5 and moved toward the favorite. As we’ve seen with other matchups with the top teams, early bettors clearly believe it will be a very chalky tournament again. Purdue has the most efficient offense in college basketball and Queens is 322nd in defense, via KenPom. This one could get ugly.
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