It’s not that surprising North Carolina basketball lost to VCU in the first round of March Madness. The way Carolina lost, however, was a total shocker. The Tar Heels led by as many as 19 points and were still up 14 deep into the second half, but they unraveled down the stretch and lost 82-78 in overtime. Hubert Davis just made his situation a lot less comfortable in Chapel Hill, where many will yell for his firing. It won’t happen yet, but now it’s a lot more realistic a year from now.
Too much mediocrity
Hubert Davis has failed to escape the first round of the NCAA Tournament in three of his five seasons as North Carolina head coach. That’s far too many failures in a short period of time.
Miracle run is saving him
North Carolina making the national championship game as a No. 8 seed in 2022 — a Cinderella run after a brutal regular season — is the only thing keeping Hubert Davis on the job. If UNC lost in the first or second round that season, it would probably be a done deal.
Only one good regular season in five years
North Carolina was a No. 1 seed in 2024. That’s the only year in which UNC basketball has been a top-four seed in the NCAA Tournament under Hubert Davis. In five seasons on the job, that kind of track record is simply not acceptable.
Too many blown leads
North Carolina basketball legend Tyler Hansbrough told the Field of 68, “I’m not stunned. I’ve seen this before.”
Too many bad patterns
North Carolina defense has been spotty and inconsistent under Hubert Davis. The Tar Heels can’t maintain control of games and struggle away from home. That these patterns persist in Year 5 is an indictment of Hubert Davis’s coaching performance.
First-round losses
North Carolina has lost in the first round — the Round of 64 — in each of the last two NCAA Tournaments. For perspective, former North Carolina coach Roy Williams lost one first-round game in 30 career attempts. He lost one first-round game in 18 seasons at North Carolina, having coached for more than a decade at Kansas before coming to Chapel Hill.
Hubert Davis should coach UNC basketball next season
Let’s be clear: Hubert Davis shouldn’t be fired right now. He should be coaching for his job next season. We’re not saying he should be fired today or at any point in the offseason.
North Carolina has been rewarded for patience
Patience shouldn’t last forever, which is why Hubert Davis is rightly on the hot seat at North Carolina, but UNC can at least be patient enough to give Davis one more shot in 2026-2027. There was another North Carolina basketball coach who struggled at the beginning. He didn’t make the NCAA Tournament or win the ACC championship in each of his first five seasons. UNC basketball gave him a sixth season in which he made the Final Four and launched his career. That coach’s name, of course, is Dean Smith.
What Hubert Davis needs to save his job at North Carolina
Hubert Davis needs to either be a top-four NCAA Tournament seed next season, or he needs to make the Round of 32 (escaping the first round/Round of 64). Basically, if next season is more of the same — a mid-level NCAA Tournament seed and a first-round exit — he should be fired in 2027. It would really help if North Carolina made the Sweet 16, but the Round of 32 is an absolute requirement if UNC’s NCAA seed is not commensurate with a top-tier program. If Carolina gets a No. 4 seed, that will mean the Tar Heels had a solid regular season. If UNC falls short of that, it will need to get something done in March Madness to save Hubert’s job.
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This article originally appeared on College Sports Wire: Hubert Davis is on the hot seat as UNC basketball chokes in March
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