It was a very chalky first round, as expected, particularly with all four No. 1 seeds showing complete dominance. But from here, things get more challenging. After all, it was just three years ago that the second round became chaotic when No. 9 Miami knocked out No. 1 Indiana and No. 8 Ole Miss took care of No. 1 Stanford. This crop of No. 1s look poised to withstand upset bids, but some of the other top 16 seeds do not. Let’s see how everyone stacks up after round one:
Connecticut Huskies
It’s hard to glean much from a 90-52 first-round victory, but one thing is certain: UConn is still the team to beat. The Huskies have relied heavily on Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd this season, but Ashlynn Shade, Blanca Quinonez and Kayleigh Heckel all provided a lift against USTA. Heckel was particularly impressive, coming off the bench to record 11 points, five assists, four rebounds and three steals. That’s a great sign for the Huskies. They will need everyone, not just their two stars, to repeat as champions.
UCLA Bruins
As expected, UCLA dominated their first round opponent, Cal Baptist, for a 96-43 win. But the Bruins were sluggish early, leading by just six points midway through the second quarter, before taking a 10-point lead into halftime. Whatever coach Cori Close said during the break worked, and UCLA outscored the Lancers 52-9 the rest of the way. A slow start isn’t an issue against a 16 seed, but it can’t keep happening. UCLA is in pursuit of the program’s first NCAA championship, and that takes perfection. Expect the Bruins to come out strong against Oklahoma State on Monday.
Texas Longhorns
Defense has been the Longhorns’ calling card all season, and that was on full display in an 87-45 win over No. 16 Missouri State. They held the Bears to 29 percent shooting and 20 percent from beyond the arc while also forcing 19 turnovers, which led to 28 points on the other end. Texas has a challenging road ahead. The Longhorns should defeat Oregon handily, but then will play either Kentucky or West Virginia. The Wildcats have experience against Texas in the SEC, playing relatively close in a 64-53 loss in February. Meanwhile, West Virginia is one of the country’s best defensive squads. Texas is playing great, but there will be even less room for error going forward.
South Carolina Gamecocks
The Gamecocks are in good shape as they gear up for a second-round game against USC, which they beat by 17 points earlier in the season. USC has struggled lately, while South Carolina has improved throughout the season. Barring any upsets, the Gamecocks will play Oklahoma in the Sweet 16 for a rematch of their Jan. 22 contest, which Oklahoma won 94-82 in overtime. Expect Dawn Staley to make adjustments if they meet again.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Mikayla Blakes is the kind of player who can absolutely carry a team in March. She’s near-impossible to guard and when she gets hot (which happens often) the rest of the Commodores feed off of her energy. In their first-round matchup against No. 15 High Point, Blakes scored 30 points. That’s her 12th game this season with at least 30 points. The Commodores have plenty of talent around Blakes, like freshman point guard Aubrey Galvan and 3-point shooter Justine Pissott, but they will go wherever Blakes takes them. Luckily for Vandy, she seems poised for a deep run.
Duke Blue Devils
The Blue Devils opened the season with a 58-52 loss to Baylor, but that team is far different from the Blue Devils who will play the Bears on Sunday. Duke has improved dramatically since the loss and is coming off a breezy win against Charleston. Meanwhile, Baylor had to claw to victory against Nebraska, escaping with a 67-62 victory. The first time these teams met, senior Ashlon Jackson struggled, going 1-of-9 on 3-pointers. Expect a revenge game from Jackson this time around.
LSU Tigers
Several top seeds had slow starts in their first round games, including UCLA, the No. 1 seed in LSU’s region. The Tigers suffered no such fate, outscoring Jacksonville 34-14 in the first quarter. There was no letup, as LSU outscored Jacksonville in each of the remaining three quarters. Sure, it was a lower-level opponent, but the ability to start hot and finish hot is a major advantage in March. LSU also got solid showings from bigs Kate Koval and Grace Knox, which is a good sign for its upcoming matchup with Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are undersized, so post play will be crucial for LSU.
Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines did everything right against Holy Cross, with four players finishing in double-figures, while holding the Crusaders to 37 percent shooting. But their next game won’t be easy. Despite being a No. 7 seed and having a 21-10 record, NC State has a lot of talent. Forward Khamil Pierre will be particularly hard to contend with, as the 6-foot-2 forward averages 16.8 points and 12 rebounds per game. The Wolverines will need an excellent defensive performance from Ashley Sofilkanich in order to limit Pierre.
Oklahoma Sooners
It might be tempting for the Sooners to look ahead to a potential Sweet 16 game against South Carolina. But Michigan State is a formidable opponent. The Spartans have an excellent guard core, led by three double-digit scorers in Kennedy Blair, Rashunda Jones and Jalyn Brown. They match up well with Oklahoma’s guards. The Sooners will, however, have an advantage in the paint with 6-5 center Raegan Beers. They’ll need to make her a priority against Michigan State.
TCU Horned Frogs
Olivia Miles was excellent against UC San Diego in the first round, finishing with 12 points, 16 rebounds and 14 assists for yet another triple-double. Next up is Washington, which could give the Horned Frogs trouble. Both teams have great guards, so this game could also come down to the paint. Freshman forward Brynn McGaughy has been solid for Washington all season, but at 6-3, she gives up a major height advantage to 6-7 Clara Silva and the rest of the TCU bigs. That could be the difference in the game.
Ohio State Buckeyes
I can’t imagine a better guard matchup than Ohio State’s Jaloni Cambridge against Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo. Notre Dame is playing its best basketball of the season, but so are the Buckeyes, who just defeated Howard 75-54. Hidalgo and Cambridge will likely cancel each other out, so this game could come down to their supporting casts. If Ohio State gets past the Irish, things get exponentially more difficult, as Vanderbilt likely awaits in the Sweet 16.
Louisville Cardinals
The Cardinals had a slow start in their first-round game against Vermont, heading into the second quarter down 17-16. The main concern about Louisville remains the same: This team is uber talented but also relatively inexperienced. One of those youngsters, sophomore forward Mackenly Randolph had one of her best games of the season, recording 20 points and 11 rebounds. That’s a good sign for Louisville, as it needs versatile play inside in order to contend with Alabama’s 6-4 junior, Essence Cody, in the next round.
West Virginia Mountaineers
The Mountaineers will have their hands full against Kentucky’s two elite bigs in Clara Strack and Teonni Key. But the Wildcats will also face a challenge with West Virginia’s guards. The SEC is a tough conference, but Kentucky still hasn’t faced a defensive backcourt like the Mountaineers. Taking care of the ball will be vital for the Wildcats. If West Virginia can speed up the game and create chaos on defense, the Mountaineers could be looking at their first Sweet 16 since 1992.
North Carolina Tar Heels
After defeating West Virginia 82-51 in the first round, the Tar Heels turn their attention to Maryland and the question, “Who can guard Oluchi Okananwa?” The Terrapins guard has a knack for dissecting defenses and scoring at the rim or on the fast break. Containing her has to be priority No. 1 for UNC. Luckily for the Tar Heels, they’ve seen Okananwa before, as she played for Duke during her first two seasons. Not so lucky, however, is the fact that Okananwa had 12 points, 12 rebounds and a buzzer-beating 3 the last time they played. UNC can’t let Okananwa get hot.
Minnesota Golden Gophers
The Gophers got out to a slow start against Green Bay, but ended the game on a 30-9 run. They can’t afford that kind of start against Ole Miss, a team that will already be a difficult opponent. Cotie McMahon is one of the most difficult individual matchups in the country, and the Gophers will have their work cut out for them trying to slow her down. The senior forward averages 19.7 points per game, using her strength and speed to get to the rim. The Gophers will need to play total team defense in order to limit McMahon and give themselves a chance to win.
Iowa Hawkeyes
It’s time to worry about the Hawkeyes. Losing big to UCLA in the Big Ten title game is one thing, but barely defeating No. 15 seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round is quite another. Sophomore center Ava Heiden was excellent once again with 29 points and 7 rebounds, while senior forward Hannah Stuelke had 13 points and 16 rebounds. But the Hawkeyes need more from their guards. Next up is a Virginia team that is much better than its No. 10 seed lets on. Forward Sa’Myah Smith matches up well with Iowa’s bigs and guard Kymora Johnson is coming off a 28-point performance. The Hawkeyes have their work cut out for them.
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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
Minnesota Golden Gophers, Duke Blue Devils, Ohio State Buckeyes, Oklahoma Sooners, UCLA Bruins, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores, Louisville Cardinals, Iowa Hawkeyes, TCU Horned Frogs, West Virginia Mountaineers, Connecticut Huskies, LSU Lady Tigers, Michigan Wolverines, Texas Longhorns, Women’s College Basketball, Bracket Central
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