“You can’t really know where you are going until you know where you have been.”
– Maya Angelou
As it relates to fantasy football, Angelou’s famous quote reminds us that it is hard to understand what we need to strive for from each position if we don’t know where the bar has been set in previous years or how it was achieved. The fourth installment in this four-part series will highlight several observations made from analyzing the results of top-12 tight ends over the last five seasons – the span during which the NFL has played 17-game seasons.
The first part of this piece will highlight at least one notable observation from reviewing each of the relatively basic counting statistics that are responsible for the overwhelming percentage of fantasy production from tight ends. A few of the nuggets at the end of the first section are statements based on what percent of a tight end’s fantasy production came via touchdown, the passing game or the running game.
The purpose: to inform readers what they need from the tight end they draft to be competitive at the position. Not all tight ends are created equal, however, so the kind of tight end (short-range target, intermediate target and big-play threat)) matters. We will go into more detail on that in the second section.
For now, let’s focus on some of the more notable findings from my research.
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All observations are from the last five seasons (2021-25). Please click this link to see the numbers that support the statements. For the purposes of this article, we are observing the following PPR scoring rules:
One point per 10 yards rushing or receiving
Six points per rushing or receiving touchdown
- The lowest fantasy point total for a top-five tight end over the last five seasons is 174.9 (Evan Engram, 2021). The lowest fantasy point total for a top-12 tight end over the last five seasons is 137.5 (Gerald Everett, 2022). Only two of the 60 top-12 tight ends (3.3%) over that span have scored at least 300 points, and only five have topped 250 (which would increase the percentage to 8.3%). Forty-one of the 60 (68.3%) have scored less than 200 points.
- Of the 60 top-12 finishers at tight end, 42 (70%) played at least 16 games. The best finish for a tight end who missed at least two games is TE3 (George Kittle in 2022 and 2024 and Travis Kelce in 2023). Kittle did it with good touchdown luck in 2022 (11) and a massive receiving yardage total in 2024 (1,106), while Kelce tallied 93 receptions in 2023. Kittle is also the only tight end (2021) to finish higher than TE7 despite missing at least three contests.
- Of the 60 top-12 finishers at tight end, 29 (48.3%) amassed at least 100 targets. The average catch total of that group was 87.6 and the average finish was TE4. All but one tight end ranked higher than TE10.
- Out of the possible 25 top-five finishers, 21 (82%) had 100 targets. The lowest catch total of the 100-target group was by Jake Ferguson (71 in 2023). Somewhat surprisingly, only 20 of the 29 (68.9%) tight ends to exceed 100 targets played all 17 games.
- There have been 18 instances of a tight end topping 80 catches in a season over the last five years. The average finish for that group is TE3. Sadly, only three 80-catch tight ends averaged more than 11 yards per catch. Even more depressingly, five of those 18 averaged less than 10 yards per catch.
- George Kittle (TE3 in 2022 and TE6 in 2023), Kyle Pitts (TE6 in 2021) and Mark Andrews (TE6 in 2024) are responsible for the only top-six finishes among tight ends with fewer than 70 catches. In two of the instances, the tight end surpassed 1,000 yards receiving. In the other two instances, the tight end scored 11 touchdowns.
- Of the 60 top-12 finishers at tight end, 14 (23.3%) averaged less than 10 yards per catch. Eighteen (30%) averaged more than 12, leaving 28 (46.7%) between 10 and 12 YPC. Each group contains at least one overall TE1 and one overall TE2. The percentage of top-12 finishers in the last group (53.6%) is considerably higher than the first (28.6%) or second group (33.3%).
- Four of the five overall TE1s scored at least nine touchdowns in their banner season. Brock Bowers’ rookie season was the lone exception, which he overcame with 112 catches. The lowest finish for a tight end with at least 10 touchdown catches in a season was Dallas Goedert’s overall TE7 last season. Four of the other six double-digit TD scorers either settled for the overall TE3 (one time) or TE1 (three times).
- Somewhat surprisingly, seven of the 60 top-12 finishers scored two or fewer touchdowns. Three of them finished no worse than TE6.
- Tight ends are highly unlikely to ever handle more than a few carries in a season, but it is at least notable that each of the top four run-point percentages (fantasy points derived from a player running the ball) has occurred in the last three seasons. Two of the top three marks came from rookies (Harold Fannin and Tyler Warren) last year.
- The sweet spot for four of the last five overall TE1s – in terms of what percentage receiving touchdowns account for their fantasy point total – has been between 18.2 and 25.5%. (Brock Bowers’ 2024 season was not included for several reasons, including but not limited to catching passes from three sub-par NFL quarterbacks that season for a bad Las Vegas offense.) Among the 21 tight ends in the former group (receiving TD point percentages between 18.2 and 25.5%), 10 of a possible 20 (50%) players finished as the TE4 or better.
- Trey McBride’s 2024 campaign (4.9%) is the only instance in which a top-four tight end failed to score at least 10% of his fantasy points via receiving touchdowns.
Let’s get to the heart of the matter now. What statistical marks do tight ends need to hit to be a TE1 (TE1-12)? What marks do they need to reach to finish inside the top five?
For the purposes of this part of the article, I will divide tight ends into three distinct groups: the short-range target (top 12 tight ends who averaged less than 10 yards per catch in a given season), the intermediate target (10-12 YPC) and the big-play threat (12-plus).
The goal of this is to know exactly what we need from each group of tight ends if we want a top-five (or top-12) finish.
The Short-Range Target
Fourteen of the 60 (23.3%) top-12 finishes over the last five seasons have come from tight ends who averaged less than 10 yards per catch. Trey McBride (2025) is responsible for the one overall TE1 finish of the group. Six of them (42.9%) ended the season no better than the TE10. The average finish of this group was TE8.
For a top-five finish, the short-range target averaged the following:
137 targets
105 catches
906 receiving yards
6.5 receiving touchdowns
For a top-12 finish, the short-range target averaged the following:
102 targets
76 catches
691.4 receiving yards
5.2 receiving touchdowns
The Intermediate Target
Twenty-eight of the 60 (46.7%) top-12 finishes over the last five seasons have come from tight ends who averaged at least 10 yards per catch but no more than 12. The average finish for this group was TE6. This group is responsible for 15 of the 25 top-five finishes over the last five years.
For a top-five finish, the intermediate target averaged the following:
120 targets
86 catches
908.9 receiving yards
5.5 receiving touchdowns
For a top-12 finish, the intermediate target averaged the following:
107 targets
76 catches
812.2 receiving yards
5.0 receiving touchdowns
The Big-Play Threat
Eighteen of the 60 (30%) top-12 finishes over the last five seasons have come from tight ends who averaged at least 12 yards per catch. The average finish for this group was TE6. Travis Kelce (twice), Mark Andrews (once) and George Kittle (three times) are responsible for all six of the top-five finishes in this group. The other 12 instances placed no better than TE6.
For a top-five finish, the big-play threat averaged the following:
119 targets
86 catches
1,101 receiving yards
9.2 receiving touchdowns
For a top-12 finish, the big-play threat averaged the following:
94 targets
67 catches
876 receiving yards
7.3 receiving touchdowns
Please refer to this chart if you would prefer this information in table form.
An analysis like this isn’t complete unless it yields something that managers can use for the upcoming season. Therefore, we will close this analysis with a year-by-year average of what a top-five and a top-12 tight end produced to see if things are trending up or down.
Click here for that breakdown.
This article originally appeared on The Huddle: Setting The Bar – TEs
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