The NBA‘s Western Conference Finals resume tonight as the series heads back to San Antonio, where the Spurs will look to defend their home court and keep their season alive. The Oklahoma City Thunder have a chance at back-to-back Western Conference titles tonight, and an NBA Finals meeting with the New York Knicks.
Game 5 of the WCF wasn’t the back-and-forth battle most expected; the Spurs’ stars all struggled, especially Victor Wembanyama, who has arguably been the best player on either side in this series. Wemby finished Game 5 with just 18 points, on 4/15 shooting from the field.
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Meanwhile, the NBA MVP put up an MVP stat line, as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander posted 32 points and nine assists on the night. Gilgeous-Alexander did that without having a particularly good offensive night, marked by inefficiency and turnovers.
The alarming part of Wemby’s Game 5 is that he had one field goal per quarter, and for some reason, he wasn’t establishing his presence in the paint. If the Spurs are going to force a Game 7, that has to change, and with the series returning to San Antonio, it feels like Wemby will come out angry.
Victor Wembanyama will dominate inside in Game 6
A common thread in both of the Spurs’ wins of this series is that Victor Wembanyama wouldn’t take no for an answer as far as scoring in the paint. In Game 1 of the WCF, Wembanyama hit 14 field goals, 13 of them were in the paint.
In Game 4, Wemby hit 11 shots, with seven of them coming from the paint. The Spurs are going to make a point of getting Wemby looks inside, whether it’s setting up pick-and-rolls for lobs at the rim or Wemby has to establish position and get fed the ball constantly.
Victor Wembanyama hasn’t settled for two bad games in a row in this series, and that won’t continue tonight back at home.
Spurs defensive pressure rises to the occasion
Another common theme in the Spurs’ two wins in this series is the defensive pressure on the Thunder, particularly against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. San Antonio has used multiple looks at Shai, whether it’s sending multiple bodies at him when he gets into the lane or letting him take his shots while completely eliminating the others, which worked so well in Game 4.
San Antonio will force turnovers early and go on another big run to open this game, suffocate OKC in the paint, and keep pivotal role guys like Alex Caruso and Jared McCain from getting any early confidence.
Final prediction
San Antonio will get out to an early lead, somewhere in the 14-17 point range, Oklahoma City will punch back at times, and won’t be as poor on offense as they were in Game 4.
This series has Game 7 written all over it, and through Victor Wembanyama playing like he’s the best player in this series once again, dominating the offensive glass as he did in Game 1, the Thunder won’t have enough.
Spurs win 126-111, Victor Wembanyama posts 34 points and 15 rebounds, and the Thunder don’t leave Texas as Western Conference Champions.
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