The race to win the FIFA men’s 2026 World Cup looks noticeably different today after another round of knockout-stage drama. Spain strengthened its championship credentials by eliminating Portugal, Belgium delivered one of the most dominant Round of 16 performances by routing the United States, and the final quarterfinal spots remain up for grabs as Lionel Messi and defending champion Argentina take the field Tuesday against Egypt and Mohamed Salah.
With traditional powers continuing to advance and several contenders already eliminated, the list of realistic title favorites is shrinking. Spain, Belgium, France and England all entered the quarterfinal round with growing momentum, while Argentina and Colombia have opportunities to further improve their standing with victories in the final Round of 16 matches.
Early top contending heavyweights such as Portugal, Germany, Brazil and Netherlands have all been eliminated as dark horse contenders while Norway, Morocco and Colombia still live to fight another day in the battle to lift the championship World Cup 2026 trophy. Here’s how it all looks now.
Who are the favorites to win the World Cup now?
Spain may have boosted its stock more than any team on Monday after ending Portugal and Cristiano Ronaldo’s World Cup run 1-0 in a stoppage-time winner from Mikel Merino. Their disciplined defense and late-game execution continue to make it one of the most dangerous teams remaining.
Belgium also emerged as a stronger contender after overwhelming the United States 4-1. The Belgians controlled the match from the opening minutes and showcased the depth that has made them a popular dark-horse pick throughout the tournament.
France and England remain firmly in the championship conversation after surviving earlier knockout tests, while Norway has entered the conversation after upsetting heavyweight favorite— Brazil.
Top contenders (updated outlook)
- France
- Argentina
- Spain
- England
Can Argentina become the World Cup favorite today?
The answer could depend on how convincing the defending champions look against Egypt.
Argentina and Lionel Messi enter Tuesday’s Round of 16 matchup looking to keep their bid for a second straight World Cup title alive. But advancing won’t be as straightforward as many expected. Argentina narrowly escaped an upset in the previous round, needing extra time to get past a dangerous Cape Verde side, while Egypt arrives with momentum after securing the nation’s first-ever World Cup knockout-stage victory. Led by Mohamed Salah, the Egyptians have already proven they can frustrate favored opponents and could present another significant challenge for one of the tournament favorites.
A convincing win would strengthen Argentina’s standing in the title race and reinforce its status as a leading contender heading into the quarterfinals. Anything less, however, could raise fresh questions about whether the defending champions are as dominant as earlier performances suggested.
Which teams can still win the World Cup? Dark horse picks
As the quarterfinal field nears completion, the strongest contenders include France, Spain, Belgium and England. Argentina and Columbia will enter that list if they advance on Tuesday.
- Norway — and their leading striker Haaland have become the tournament’s breakout dark horse story after they stunned Brazil to reach the quarterfinals for the first time in its history, instantly transforming from underdog to dangerous contender.
- Morocco — continues to prove it belongs among the remaining contenders after reaching the quarterfinals.
World Cup games today
The final Round of 16 matches are scheduled for Tuesday:
- Argentina vs. Egypt — 12 p.m. ET in Atlanta
- Switzerland vs. Colombia — 4 p.m. ET in Vancouver
- Live stream: Fubo (free trial) | Peacock (Spanish)
Who will win the 2026 World Cup? Latest odds, predictions
Across sportsbooks and predictive models, France has pulled away with the most significant lead, followed by Argentina, England, and Spain to round out the top tier. And a second tier of uncertainty follows with Norway and Columbia.
The Polymarket betting odds for the 2026 World Cup winner is favoring France by the biggest percentage to win with Spain now surging over Argentina again:
- France – 33%
- Spain – 19%
- Argentina – 18%
- England – 15%
- Norway – 6%
- Colombia – 3%
The Kalshi markets‘ betting odds for the 2026 World Cup winner are very similar, with France, Spain and Argentina gaining the biggest lead and separation at the top tier.
- France – 33.1%
- Spain – 19.1%
- Argentina – 18%
- England – 14.8%
- Norway – 5.9%
- Colombia – 3.4%
Across prediction models and sportsbooks, France maintains the highest probability to win, with Spain, Argentina, and England still holding on in the top tier of contenders.
The key takeaway: France is the heavy favorite, while margins between other top contenders remain narrow — making this still one of the most open World Cups in years. The expanded 48-team format is also playing a role, allowing more teams to advance and increasing the chances of upsets once the knockout rounds begin.
Note: Polls and odds are constantly changing. These numbers reflect polling and odds as of 11 a.m. Tuesday, July 7, 2026.
FIFA’s 2026 World Cup power rankings: All 10 teams left – updated
According to the latest FIFA Men’s World Ranking, these are the favorites left to win the FIFA men’s 2026 World Cup:
- France
- Argentina
- Spain
- England
- Morocco
- Belgium
- Colombia
- Switzerland
- Norway
- Egypt
World Cup 2026 Schedule: When is the FIFA men’s World Cup final
The 2026 FIFA World Cup began with the group stage on June 11 and runs through the final championship game on July 19, featuring 48 teams and the new expanded format:
- Group stage: June 11–27
- Round of 32: June 28–July 3
- Round of 16: July 4–7
- Quarterfinals: July 9–11
- Semifinals: July 14–15
- Final: July 19
It is the largest World Cup in history, with matches played across North America.
Who has won the most World Cups? All-time winnerst list
Brazil remains the most successful nation in World Cup history, with five titles. Germany and Italy are tied for second with four wins each and defending champion Argentina holds three. The record for most appearances in a World Cup final goes to Germany, making eight final matches. Here’s a list of all-time winners:
- 2022: Argentina
- 2018: France
- 2014: Germany
- 2010: Spain
- 2006: Italy
- 2002: Brazil
- 1998: France
- 1994: Brazil
- 1990: West Germany
- 1986: Argentina
- 1982: Italy
- 1978: Argentina
- 1974: West Germany
- 1970: Brazil
- 1966: England
- 1962: Brazil
- 1958: Brazil
- 1954: West Germany
- 1950: Uruguay
- 1946: No tournament due to World War II
- 1942: No tournament due to World War II
- 1938: Italy
- 1934: Italy
- 1930: Uruguay
Maria Francis is a Pennsylvania-based journalist covering trending and breaking topics across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions for USA Today Network. Reach her at mfrancis@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Who will win the World Cup 2026? Favorites, rankings change after Round of 16 upsets
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