Three weeks into the fantasy season, the excuses start getting a little harder to make. One bad game? Fine. Two games? We can still talk ourselves into patience. By Week 4, though, we have enough information to start asking whether what we drafted is actually what we have.
For running backs, I care about more than just touches. Seventeen carries can look great in a box score, but what kind of carries are they? Is the player involved on third down? Is he catching passes? Is he getting the football near the goal line? Is the offense creating enough scoring opportunities?
That is where this week’s Panic Meter starts.
The thresholds remain the same: No Panic, Some Panic, Total Panic or Coping Corner. All four of these Year 2 running backs have disappointed in some way. They just haven’t disappointed for the same reasons.
Omarion Hampton: SOME PANIC
The carries keep pulling me back in with Omarion Hampton. Almost everything else is pushing his ceiling away.
Through three games, Hampton has 50 carries for 193 yards and two touchdowns. That is enough volume to keep him playable. The problem lies in the kind of work he is getting.
Hampton caught 32 passes in only nine games as a rookie. Through three games this season, he has two catches on three targets. Alec Ingold caught three passes for 35 yards in Week 3 alone. Hampton has fewer receptions through three weeks than his fullback had in one game.
Week 3 made the concern worse. Hampton played just 27 of 64 snaps and ran six routes. Keaton Mitchell played 23 snaps and ran 15 routes while Kimani Vidal handled much of the obvious passing-down work. Hampton saw only one of seven running back targets.
The Chargers are starting to split this backfield into three jobs. Hampton is the primary early-down runner, Mitchell gives them speed and Vidal is taking valuable passing-down snaps. That strips away the receiving ceiling fantasy managers were counting on.
The offense is not helping either. Los Angeles is 0-3 and has scored 14, 14 and 16 points, respectively. Even a secure goal-line role only goes so far when the team rarely gets there.
I’m at Some Panic. Hampton is still averaging more than 17 touches per game and has handled 50 of the Chargers’ 68 running back carries, so the floor is still there. What has changed is the ceiling.
Fantasy managers drafted a three-down breakout and right now, all they have is an early-down volume back.
Ashton Jeanty: SOME PANIC
Ashton Jeanty represents almost the opposite problem.
The role is excellent. He has 76 touches through three games, 63 carries and 16 targets, and he played 83% of the snaps in Week 3. If you showed me that workload in August, I would have loved it.
But the production has not matched it.
Jeanty has 206 rushing yards on 63 carries — just 3.3 yards per attempt — with no rushing touchdowns. After opening with 102 yards on 23 carries, he has 104 rushing yards on 40 carries over the last two weeks. He also dropped three passes in Week 2 and failed on two early goal-line carries.
What has stood out most is the lack of the tackle-breaking and explosive rushing we saw from him as a rookie.
Mike Washington Jr. gave us a sharp contrast in Week 3. Jeanty’s longest run on 19 carries was 12 yards. Washington turned five carries into 54 yards, including a 36-yard touchdown.
I’m not worried about Washington stealing the backfield. He played only 17% of the snaps. I’m worried because Jeanty is getting everything we want from a workload perspective and still has not consistently looked like the player fantasy managers paid for.
Las Vegas is 3-0 and averaging 29.3 points per game. The offense is creating scoring chances. Jeanty has two receiving touchdowns and still averages 18.4 PPR points, but the 32.7-point opener is carrying a lot of that number. Since then, he has scored 10.3 and 12.3, respectively.
So I’m staying at Some Panic. The workload is too strong to increase the panic level, but I need the explosive plays and tackle-breaking to return before I’m comfortable viewing Jeanty as the elite difference-maker fantasy managers drafted.
Quinshon Judkins: NO PANIC
Quinshon Judkins has not been good. He also has not given me a reason to change the evaluation.
Through three games, Judkins has 42 carries for 124 yards, nine receptions for 53 yards and no touchdowns. He is averaging 3.0 yards per carry. Nobody drafted him expecting efficiency to carry his fantasy value.
His value comes from owning Cleveland’s rushing work, and that part remains intact.
Judkins handled 18 of the Browns’ 19 running back carries in Week 3 and finished with 70 rushing yards. Raheim Sanders took some passing-down work while Cleveland was chasing points late, but Sanders has only four carries all season. Jaleel McLaughlin barely played and Dylan Sampson is on injured reserve.
The setup is pretty straightforward. Judkins controls the early-down rushing work in an offense averaging 18 points per game. The receiving ceiling is limited and touchdown opportunities are going to determine a lot of his better fantasy weeks.
For me, that stays at No Panic.
That doesn’t mean I love the profile. It means the usage still matches the reason you drafted him. He is a volume-based RB2 or flex who can give you 15 to 20 touches and needs touchdowns to push beyond that. Three games have not changed the player or the role enough for me to react.
TreVeyon Henderson: TOTAL PANIC
TreVeyon Henderson is the one I am most concerned about. He missed Week 1 with an ankle injury, returned in Week 2 and immediately gave fantasy managers hope with 16 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown.
Then Week 3 pulled the rug back out.
Henderson played 21 snaps to Rhamondre Stevenson’s 32. Henderson had a narrow 9-8 edge in carries, but Stevenson led 3-1 in targets and handled more of the passing-down work. Across Henderson’s two active games, he has 25 touches to Stevenson’s 18, but Henderson has only one target.
So yes, Henderson can lead this backfield in carries and still lose the snaps that carry more fantasy value.
Now put that role inside a Patriots offense averaging 12 points per game. New England has scored 36 points in three weeks, the offensive line is dealing with injuries and Drake Maye has struggled to keep the offense on schedule. Henderson is being asked to create fantasy value without a reliable receiving role or control of the backfield.
We know he can create explosive plays. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry as a rookie, rushed for 911 yards and scored four touchdowns of at least 50 yards.
The problem is how much he needs those plays right now.
You cannot build a weekly fantasy expectation around waiting for a 40-yard run. That is Total Panic for me. The talent is still there, but the role is not strong enough and the offense is not producing enough points to cover for it.
Henderson can still save your week with one play, but New England is giving him very little else.
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