Fantasy Football: 3 players set to enter the Circle of Trust in Week 5 — and 3 who could fall out

Let me know if this feels familiar to you. I work with all sorts of people at my day job. From engineers like myself with varying fields of expertise, to contracting, finance or mission support, the list of groups and job titles goes on forever. The use of buzzwords like “cross-functional” and “multi-disciplinary” is frequent, to say the least. And I interface (another one!) with folks from each group almost daily. 

But when I need stuff done, I’ve got my people. The few I can ping on Teams, give them a quick rundown of the context or need and I’ve got an answer in my inbox mere hours later.

We have guys like that in fantasy football.

Some are easy to spot because of their ADP. Others have worked their way onto the edge of our circle of trust. And if things break right (or don’t) in Week 5, these could be our go-to options for the rest of the season.

Almost In the Circle

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars

I’ll admit that listing Trevor Lawrence as a guy fantasy managers would be right not to trust fully feels wrong. As far as ethical passers go, Duval has one of the best. 

I was (way up) in the stands as Lawrence led drive after drive against my Bengals in Week 4. And there were only three series where I thought Cincinnati had a chance to come back. His buy-in and understanding of HC Liam Coen’s scheme look much improved from ’25. There are no efficiency rankings where you won’t find Lawrence inside the top 12. But just because he’s passing well doesn’t mean he’s doing it often.

• Week 1: -4.3% (PROE), 20th (Rank) 

• Week 2: -3.3%, 22nd 

• Week 3: -2.5%, 23rd 

• Week 4: -2.0%, 18th 

Through four weeks, Lawrence’s 28.5 dropbacks per game rank 28th among all starters. Cam Ward has more red-zone dropbacks per game than Lawrence. His rushing rate is also down as he’s seen fewer pressures each week. As a result, Lawrence has been a great real-life QB, but mediocre for fantasy. But there’s a path for him to stay on our good side this weekend.

Philadelphia’s defense isn’t the same vaunted unit from years past. They’re 18th in passing yards per game allowed and below the league average in defensive EPA per play. The only mobile QB the Eagles have faced was Jayden Daniels, and his 31 rushing yards give Lawrence a low floor for boosting his output. With another strong outing in Week 5, and a stretch of favorable matchups ahead, we should have more confidence about Lawrence moving forward.

Aaron Jones Sr., RB, Vikings

To be clear, I don’t think the problem is Aaron Jones Sr.

It’s been three weeks since Jordan Mason went on injured reserve. We expected the touches to condense around the 31-year-old RB. And so far, that part of the equation has worked in our favor.

• Rush Att. Share (w/out Mason): 81%, 5th (among all RBs – min. 75 snaps)

• Route Rate: 55%, 8th 

• Target Share: 17%, 4th 

Few other RBs are getting the same amount of work as Jones. His 23 touches per game are more than Jahmyr Gibbs (22.7), Kyren Williams (20.3) and James Cook (20.0). Jones has run 56 routes in three weeks. Ashton Jeanty has 55 carries. The usage couldn’t be better. His offense could be, though.

I realize that tweet only shows one rep. But it highlights a larger trend regarding the early returns of the Kyler Murray experience. When Carson Wentz started in place of Murray, the offense operated on time, with Wentz averaging 2.53 seconds per pass. Not only is Murray getting the ball out at that same pace on just 40.9% of his throws, but they’re only traveling 2.7 air yards. He’s tied for the eighth-fewest attempts to the intermediate part of the field. But they’ve got another shot to change up on Sunday.

New Orleans has surrendered the most PPG to RBs to date. That’ll give Jones a better path to rushing production and more manageable down-and-distance for Murray in obvious passing situations — the ideal setup right before the Vikings head into their bye.

Isaiah Likely, TE, Giants

After starting off the season as the TE1, Isaiah Likely faded into replacement level after Jaxson Dart went down. Plus, playing with Jameis Winston, at least at times, hasn’t looked like the boon we thought it’d be.

Watching a QB throw a meatball sub to the defense while your receiver stands alone is one of the most demoralizing things to watch as a fantasy gamer. It’s even worse for TEs, as their target share relative to WRs is lower. However, as I noted in my offseason TE strategy piece, finding the guys cosplaying as receivers should be our first step. And even as Winston has continued to warm up, Likely has maintained his role as the second option in the offense.

• Route Rate (Weeks 3-4): 90%, 4th (among all TEs – min. 40 routes)

• Targets per Route Run: 32%, 1st 

• Target Share: 34%, 1st 

It’s not like Malachi Fields’ or Darnell Mooney’s on-field play has earned them more attention. The offense still flows through the same two pass-catchers. Even better, Winston’s CPOE has picked up across his two full starts (Week 3: 4.8%, Week 4: +1.3%). And going against a defense allowing the fourth-most points to his position on Sunday, Likely should be back in the TE1 discussion after Week 5.

Teetering on the Edge

Jalen Hurts, QB Eagles

Our perception of the Eagles has completely flipped since the end of Week 4. Multiple pass-catchers are still hurt (with Dontayvion Wicks now included). The elite offensive line is no more. And yet, Jalen Hurts has been trying to make plays.

OK, let me add in the necessary context here. Sure, Hurts had his third multi-TD game against the Rams. But he only threw for 93 yards. Surprisingly, he’s the third QB this season to start and finish a game and amass less than 100 through the air. But remember, passers with early-round price tags need throwing efficiency and a boost via rushing to pay off their ADP. Neither has been there through the first month.

• Passing Success Rate: 37.3%, 27th (among all starters)

• EPA per Dropback: -0.08, 24th 

• Pressure-to-Sack Ratio: 20.0%, 24th 

The real head-scratcher has been the decline in rushing. Hurts’ designed rushing rate is almost a third of what it was at this point last year (16.6% to 6.8%). The scrambling is also down. Instead, drive-killing sacks are on the rise. And against a Jacksonville defense that just clocked Joe Burrow 11 times, managers should already have another QB on their bench should Hurts disappoint again.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Broncos

I saw the post below and had to confirm the caption. But honestly, this is why Waddle should be tumbling down the rest-of-season ranks.

We’re a month into the season. Bo Nix has completed five touchdown passes. That’s bad enough! Sam Darnold has thrown for six scores, and he (effectively) missed two games. Anyway, taking this long to connect with Nix’s supposed WR1 in the end zone is already a yellow flag. The other is Waddle’s place within the passing game.

• Target Share: 22%

• Route Rate: 78%

• Snap Share: 68%

Waddle has the third-highest snap rate of the Broncos’ WRs when they use heavy-personnel packages. His four (!) red-zone targets might be second-most on the team, but Week 4 was the first look with a depth of double digits. In fact, Nix is yet to throw a pass to Waddle when he’s been in the end zone.

The combination of taking on the Chargers’ defense and HC Sean Payton resuming play-calling duties might be all it takes. But without a significant shift in opportunities and results, Waddle may fall into the WR3 category for the rest of the season.

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Bills

I, too, believed in Dalton Kincaid’s return to stardom. He was the TE5 and TE3 to start the season. And touchdowns weren’t propping up the results. The YAC was back, along with a healthy workload. But now, we’re clinging to coachspeak for optimism. 

However, let’s go back to our Likely discussion. The logic train was that a change in on-field deployment would be the signal. Of course, we’d like to see a consistent flow of attempts. But for TEs especially, cardio is the path to staying involved in the offense. And that hasn’t changed too much for Kincaid.

• Route Rate: 68.6% (Weeks 1-2), 60.6% (Weeks 3-4)

• Snap Share: 71.9%, 62.4%

• Slot Rate: 31.0%, 38.4%

No, HC Joe Brady isn’t asking Kincaid to block more. PFF’s charting had him with five pass-blocking snaps in the first two weeks and just two across Weeks 3 and 4. Also, no, Dawson Knox isn’t playing more. He’s running a similar number of routes and getting one or two targets per game, like always. Said another way, in most situations, we’d look for a regression to what we saw to start the season. 

DJ Moore’s (likely) absence will condense Josh Allen’s target tree, opening up more work for Kincaid. But Keon Coleman is looking like the receiver the Bills drafted. And Khalil Shakir continues to reset downs when Allen needs them most. Unless we can see a concerted effort to make Kincaid a focal point of the passing game, his TE1 status will be in jeopardy.