We’re on to Week 6 of the fantasy season! As we look for every advantage this season, the X-factor position is the FLEX. To break it all down, analyst Joel Smyth goes through 8 players in the consensus rankings flex zone for your flexes, double flexes or even third WR slots.
Set & Forget
Braelon Allen vs. NE
After his second straight game as the Jets bellcow, this time getting 28 opportunities, I’m not considering moving Allen out of the lineup. If this game goes how New York wants, Allen can cross 20 carries once more with the Jets controlling this matchup.
Say it doesn’t. Well, Allen was second among RBs last week in route share to Christian McCaffrey. His four targets only equaled one zero-yard reception, but it does provide a little bit of a buffer in future games as the lead back.
Jalen Coker vs. PHI
An insane split to start the season: Philadelphia is No. 1 against outside WRs, and 32nd versus the slot, where Jalen Coker lines up close to half of plays. With a lot of star wideouts on bye, Coker becomes a set-it-and-forget-it player upon his return for me. In his previous three healthy games, Coker had 8+ receptions in all of them!
The bye week came at a perfect time for a player who was close to being ready to go after another week of rest.
Flex Starts
Denzel Boston vs. BAL
Boston is getting the high-value targets in Cleveland, ranking 10th in air yards on the season as the clear top option on downfield throws. His average depth of target is 16 yards downfield, making him a more boom-or-bust flex, but without KC Concepcion, he should be the main focus of this passing attack. With five end-zone targets so far this season (behind only Christian Watson), the touchdown upside is higher than one would expect on a Browns offense. Hopefully, head coach Todd Monken can learn from all his practices versus Baltimore’s defense over the last few years and exploit them for a few big plays.
Devaughn Vele vs. NYG
It’s hindsight, but Vele’s down week was pretty predictable, right? Minnesota’s defense is insane and shouldn’t be the matchup to dissect negatively too much. Tyler Shough was held to 96 passing yards after having 250+ in all four games prior, as the Vikings held the Saints to 13 points. Vele’s volume has been anywhere from 6-9 targets in each game, supported by a very fantasy-friendly offense for PPR leagues. New Orleans plays ultra-fast, takes the easy completions, is pass-heavy and often trailing. In his first month against non-Vikings defenses, Vele averaged 13.9 PPR PPG. I’d expect production more similar to that versus the Giants in Week 6.
Double Flex Starts
Dameon Pierce vs. CAR
It’s not a plug-and-play, but more so a plug-and-pray. The RB position is thinning fast, and four bye weeks don’t help. A lot of teams just need a body at RB and Pierce’s body is out there every play! That’s the main positive — after the Will Shipley injury, Pierce played every snap for the Eagles.
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Is the offensive line in front of him good? Not really. Also, neither is the offense. And probably not Pierce himself. However, he’s going to get touches, and in fantasy, sometimes that’s enough. It’s worked for Ollie Gordon II, at times for MarShawn Lloyd and several others in bad situations in spot starts.
Jeremiyah Love vs. LAR
In comparison to the other double-flex options, I like Love’s odds the best. He’s been a disappointing third-round fantasy pick to say the least, but his ceiling is still the best of the players in this area. Before the blowout, Love handled 90% of the Cardinals’ RB carries, continuing a trend over the last month.
The floor is low against a great Rams squad, but it’s not any lower than the replacements, and at least gives you a shot at a very talented player getting a good amount of touches in this divisional matchup. The goal would be to get the outcome we saw versus a good 49ers team, where Love had 26 touches and reached the end zone. Since that point, he’s had over 70% of the RB touches.
Booby Traps
Harold Fannin Jr. vs. BAL
I’d rather be playing Boston than trusting in a Fannin bounce back. The injury to KC Concepcion does help him in theory, although it didn’t help much for Fannin’s Week 5 production; it isn’t enough for me to place him in lineups. The role is minimal to begin the season. He has zero designed targets and relies too much on checkdowns from Deshaun Watson, who has the most scramble attempts in the NFL. Fannin has three touchdowns, but they’ve come on only three red-zone targets, an unsustainable rate. With his target share all over the place, I’m not banking on it to be above 20% for just the second time this year.
Rome Odunze vs. ATL
I’m an Odunze apologist, and I hope he can bounce back with Caleb Williams; I just don’t think this is his best spot. Williams really struggled under pressure last season when it came to his passing. When he was under pressure, Odunze had an abysmal 0.58 yards per route, being targeted once in a blue moon. I bring this up specifically because Atlanta, which has lost key edge rushers, has overcome the odds to lead the league in pressure rate this season. It doesn’t do it with heavy blitzes, which could’ve at least given Odunze some potential 1-on-1 opportunities for big plays either.
It’s a key wrinkle on top of an already borderline flex play that keeps me off Odunze this weekend.
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