NFL Survivor contest picks, predictions, advice, strategy: My favorite Week 7 selections

Normally, when there’s Survivor blood in the streets of Los Angeles it’s because the Chargers have done it again. 

In Week 7, though, the Rams were the culprits, becoming the biggest favorite to lose outright all season. Plus, what feels even less likely than a 13-point/Super Bowl favorite getting tripped up? The Tennessee Titans actually won a game. 

Those two stunners cut the remaining pool entrants by more than half once again, and just 5% of the original entrants remain in Circa Sports’ massive Survivor contest after just six weeks:

While that percentage should roughly mirror the number remaining in your pool, how many entrants remain changes the calculus when it comes to strategy. After all, the fewer the entrants, the less conceptual risk is necessary each week. 

Most likely path

To get to this point, we can get pretty close to narrowing down the most likely path for survival, all of which have been options in our weekly Survivor contest outlook:

• Week 1: Jaguars (over Browns)/Steelers (over Falcons)

• Week 2: 49ers (over Cardinals)

• Week 3: Chiefs (over Dolphins)

• Week 4: Vikings (over Dolphins)/Ravens (over Titans)

• Week 5: Texans (over Titans)/Jaguars (over Eagles)

• Week 6: Patriots (over Jets)

This provides context in understanding that it matters who you’ve already taken, and what you might be giving up by burning a team that week.

Week 7 moneylines

How likely is a team to win and you’ll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the moneyline, which we can convert to an implied win probability.

Market power ratings

It’s not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use it again. What is simple is that if you’re going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you’ll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL — an unnerving thought. 

Here’s a list of the current top 18 teams (with help from the betting market), and an estimation of their value to the point spread: 

• Bills: 18.6

• Rams: 18.1

• Seahawks: 18.1

• Chiefs: 17.6

• Jaguars: 17.6

• 49ers: 17.6

• Ravens: 17.6

• Bears: 17.3

• Texans: 16.7

• Bengals: 16.5

• Patriots: 16.2

• Lions: 15.9

• Vikings: 15.1

• Broncos: 14.6

• Cowboys: 14.3

• Panthers: 14.3

• Steelers: 14.3

• Packers: 13.5

Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you’re giving up the opportunity to use it later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in September is nerve-wracking, but doing so at some point in December is real tension. 

Week 7’s Survivor pick

Now that we have a good understanding of how the survivors have made it through Week 6, we’re down to “one-and-done” for our pick, and the decision tree that will sprout from that selection. Once we’re out, we’re out. The implied probability derived from the moneyline should answer any questions about why the favorite should win, but the nuance is found in what you’re giving up by using them now and not later (with a projected point spread projection for those matchups).

Texans (80.9%) over Giants 

Survivor combines skill and luck like no other betting-related vehicle.

Skill: Turning away from the Jaguars in Week 1, using another team to get by, saving Jacksonville for a later date.

Luck: Using the Jaguars in Week 5 against the Eagles, and getting bailed out in the final seconds of that game. 

That combination is the most likely reason as to why Circa’s “availability matrix” has Houston available for just over half (52.5%) of remaining contestants. 

Whether it’s Jameis Winston or J.J. McCarthy starting at quarterback for the Giants, this is the time to take Houston, with back-to-back wins under their belt, as the biggest favorite of the week. 

Estimated Availability: 52.5%

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 9 at Chargers (HOU -4.5)

• Week 11 vs. Colts (HOU -7.5)

• Week 18 vs. Titans (HOU -11)

We’d love to keep the Texans holstered, allowing others to take them, and have Houston as a trump card later on, but the other options this week are too sketchy to want to use.

Are you one of the 47.5% of Survivor contestants to have burned the Texans in Week 5? Hopefully, you’re in the 58.3% cohort who still has available the second-biggest favorite — the Vikings (having likely used the Ravens in Week 4).

Without access to either, you’ve likely fallen victim to poor planning, and now it’s time to roll the dice with the Jets, or test your acumen in picking a game that’s uncomfortably close to a 50/50 bet on the moneyline.

Do you feel lucky with a Los Angeles team? The Cowboys? The Steelers in Paris? Well, do ya?

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.