One week can change the entire perception of an NFL team. Sometimes that’s good, sometimes it’s not.
The Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers were both 2-2 coming into last week’s games. The Cowboys weren’t considered a Super Bowl contender, but they were at least looking OK — especially in a bad NFC East — with a home game against the winless Buccaneers coming up. The Packers had played so poorly through four weeks that they were home underdogs to the Bears for the first time in 20 years, even though Chicago had its backup quarterback.
The Cowboys and Packers come into Week 6’s Sunday night game with their seasons flipped around.
The Cowboys looked horrible against the Buccaneers, losing to an undrafted rookie quarterback. The defensive problems finally got to a point in which the Cowboys hired longtime NFL defensive coordinator Mike Pettine as a senior defensive assistant and said defensive coordinator Christian Parker will now call plays from the press box. There’s always some angst in Dallas because of the attention on the Cowboys all the time, but it’s not like the defensive problems are made up. Dallas was 32nd in defensive DVOA last season and they’re 32nd so far this season.
Meanwhile, the talk of Matt LaFleur being on the hot seat seems like it was a lot longer than a week ago. The best way to gain back the confidence of Packers fans is to blow out the Bears, and the Packers did that. They blasted Chicago 31-7, with Jordan Love embarrassing the Bears defense with his deep passing and Green Bay shutting down everything Chicago’s offense wanted to do. After not playing a good game through four weeks, the Packers played a great game in Week 5.
That makes Week 6 hard to figure out. Do the Cowboys rebound or is the defense simply unfixable? What’s the real Packers team, the one that couldn’t run the ball, couldn’t protect Love and had a below-average defense through four games, or the one we saw Sunday?
The Packers are a small favorite on Sunday night, indicating the oddsmakers don’t have a lot of confidence in them still. But it’s tougher to bank on the Cowboys’ defense. Packers -1.5 is the pick, though it could all look different for both teams next week. That’s how the NFL goes.
Here are the rest of the picks against the spread for Week 6 of the NFL season:
Seahawks (-2.5) over Broncos
Not all is great for the Seahawks, who can’t run the ball and still don’t have an offensive option other than Jaxon Smith-Njigba. But they’ve been far better than the Broncos, who were on their way to losing to the winless and injury-plagued Chargers before saving themselves with a fourth-quarter rally. The matchup of Seattle’s defense against an aimless Broncos offense is enough to take Denver.
Jaguars (-2.5) over Texans
A bit of a weird line. The Jaguars are 4-1 and while last week’s miracle win over the Eagles wasn’t great, they do look like a legitimate contender in the AFC. The Texans are 1-4 and their win came against the 0-5 Titans. And yet, in a neutral site game — if either team has the edge it’s Jacksonville, who does the London trip every season and stayed overseas after playing there last week — the Jaguars aren’t even giving a full field goal. Yes it’s a desperate Houston team with a very good defense. But it’s not a lot of respect for the Jaguars.
Falcons (+1.5) over Bears
It appears Michael Penix Jr. and Caleb Williams will start, which should make for an entertaining game. The big question for this one will be what to make of the Bears defense. In Week 1 and 5 they gave up 68 points. From Weeks 2-4 they allowed 28 points. The hot stretch in the middle could have come from facing three bad offenses (Vikings without Kyler Murray, Eagles, Jets) instead of the Panthers and Packers, their other two opponents who both got more than 30 points. The Falcons are a good offense with Penix, so points should be coming.
Browns (+5.5) over Ravens
The Ravens should have confidence after beating the Falcons without Lamar Jackson last week. But a Tyler Huntley offense still isn’t one I’m comfortable laying 5.5 points on the road with.
Buccaneers (+2.5) over Steelers
Metrics like DVOA and net EPA per play says these teams are practically even. The Buccaneers have the rest advantage, having played last Thursday night, and the Steelers are 0-2 on the road (3-0 at home). Rookie Jalon Daniels could be exposed by the best defense who he has faced, but it’s also not the intimidating Steelers defense from recent years.
Patriots (-7.5) over Jets
The Patriots are officially warmed up. The start to the season was lackluster but Drake Maye is coming off two good games in a row. The Jets are better than some expected, but they’re facing a team that has its season back on track and wants to keep that going.
Giants (+1.5) over Saints
It’s hard to buy the Giants. There’s no evidence they’re a good team despite their 3-1-1 record. But it’s not like there are any signs that the Saints are much better. New Orleans is 30th in DVOA ahead of only the hopeless Titans and Dolphins. Anything can happen when Jameis Winston is starting at quarterback, good or bad. Good luck predicting it.
Panthers (-1) over Eagles
It’s weird to see the Panthers favored at Philadelphia (though some books have the Eagles as a small favorite). But to this point, Carolina has been the far better team. Also, they’re coming off a bye while the Eagles come right off a flight from London, where they took a horrific loss after kicking a go-ahead field goal with eight seconds left.
Colts (-7) over Titans
The TItans should be very happy the Dolphins exist this season, or else there would be even more talk about how bad they are. Indianapolis hasn’t been great either but it’s just too difficult to take the Titans right now.
Cardinals (+12.5) over Rams
It’s quite possible the Rams take out their frustrations on the Cardinals. The Rams are 2-3, but the schedule has been tough and it starts to ease up with a game against the Cardinals, who just got throttled by the Lions. Arizona seems to be running out of steam after looking decent to start the season. Still, 12.5 points is a lot considering the Rams haven’t looked great yet and the Cardinals can move the ball, especially in garbage time.
Raiders (+5.5) over Bills
The Bills are coming off an emotional, difficult overtime win against the Rams on Monday night. They are the better team but that’s a tough situational spot and the Raiders are not as bad as they looked last week against the Patriots. Let’s give the Raiders one more shot to show that 3-0 start wasn’t fraudulent.
Chiefs (-8) over Chargers
The Chargers aren’t just bad, they’re injured. They held their own against the Broncos last week but that probably says more about Denver. This season is already ugly for the Chargers and it’s not going to get much better.
Commanders (+7.5) over 49ers
If the Commanders aren’t completely downtrodden after one of the dumbest endings in recent NFL history last week, in which they casually watched the final minute of overtime run out without getting a field-goal attempt, then this seems like too many points. The 49ers have played very well on both sides of the ball (the defense has been a great surprise), but there is some danger of a letdown after winning at Seattle. Take the points and hope last week’s fiasco doesn’t still linger for Washington.
Last week:5-9-1
Season to date: 34-43-2
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