Connor Earegood of The Detroit News breaks down Michigan State’s first-round opponent in the NCAA Tournament and predicts the outcome:
Michigan State vs. North Dakota State scouting report, prediction
- Four North Dakota State players average 10.0 or more points per game, led by Damari Wheeler-Thomas at 14.4 points per game. Trevian Carson (12.0), Markhi Strickland (11.8) and Treyson Anderson (10.4) are also factors offensively. Carson and Anderson lead with 6.4 and 5.4 rebounds per game. Andy Stefonowicz ties those four together with 4.9 assists per game.
- North Dakota State averages the 26th-best scoring margin in Division I at 11.1 points per game, though that came against the 282nd best strength of schedule as calculated by KenPom. The Bison score 80.7 points per game (70th) and allow 69.6 (64th).
- North Dakota State ranks 38th in Division I with 36.5% 3-point shooting and ties for 62nd in total 3-pointers per game at 9.4. That’s a tough matchup for Michigan State, which has allowed 40% or better 3-point shooting in three of its past four games, two of those games being losses to Michigan and UCLA. Since Jan. 1, Michigan State is allowing 33.5% 3-point shooting, which would tie for 163rd in Division I, and its defense has slipped out of the top 10 in efficiency in conjunction with that slippage.
- This game will be a battle of two of the best defensive rebounding teams in Division I. Nobody hauls in a higher percentage of defensive rebounds than Michigan State, whose 22.6% offensive rebounding percentage leads all teams as calculated by KenPom. North Dakota State comes in at 25.7, ranking 17th. The Spartans corral 39.84 rebounds per game (26th) while the Bison haul in 36.44 (117th). Michigan State will need its frontcourt to control the glass, from starters Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper to Cam Ward off the bench.
Michigan State (25-7) knows it can’t overlook any opening-round opponent — that’s how you get Middle Tennessee State’s upset in 2016, which will always give Tom Izzo a teaching point this time of year. But the Spartans have the size and physicality to outmatch North Dakota State (27-7), who hasn’t played anyone of MSU’s ilk all season. And a Big Ten Tournament loss to UCLA is enough of a gut check to make this game as routine as it should be. Final: 78-63 Michigan State
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This article originally appeared on The Detroit News: Michigan State prediction for Round 1 of 2026 NCAA bracket
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