Game Thread: Pirates (72-73) at White Sox (75-69)

A bit of housekeeping before tonight’s game: The White Sox placed righthander Tyler Davis on the Bereavement/Family Medical Emergency List and recalled lefthander Chris Murphy from Triple-A Charlotte.

After getting shellacked, 9-3, last night, the South Siders could use a convincing win tonight. Davis Martin gets the ball for Chicago as it attempts to protect a two-game lead in the AL Central — and a three-game advantage in the loss column.

Martin is 9-6 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over 25 starts. The righthander was solid in his first appearance after returning from a brief injured-list stint caused by a blister. He tossed 5 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing five hits and one walk while striking out three.

That was an encouraging response after a brutal August in which Martin posted a 14.63 ERA and 2.25 WHIP over three starts. The Sox badly need the Martin of old — specifically, the April and May version who went 7-1 and appeared headed toward an All-Star selection and perhaps even Cy Young consideration.

The Baseball Savant numbers show exactly what Martin needs to do to rediscover that form. The veteran needs to lean on his changeup and sinker and be careful with his breaking stuff. The changeup should be featured particularly against lefties such as Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe and Bryan Reynolds.

Martin has also generated chases at a healthy rate, ranking in the 70th percentile, so expanding the zone with the changeup once he gets ahead should be an important part of the plan. The danger comes when he leaves pitches in hittable locations. Martin ranks in only the 15th percentile in average exit velocity and the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate. His expected batting average is in the 11th percentile, and his expected ERA is in the 25th. In other words, when hitters make contact against him, it is often loud contact.

His slider has been particularly vulnerable, ranking in the 11th percentile in run value, while his overall breaking-ball run value sits in the 18th. The curveball has been closer to average, but this is not a night for Martin to rely heavily on breaking pitches in the heart of the plate. He should establish the sinker, use the changeup as his primary putaway offering and make Pittsburgh prove it can resist chasing.

Starting pitching remains one of Chicago’s most significant weaknesses. White Sox starters have a 4.69 ERA, which ranks 26th in baseball, and a 1.34 WHIP, good for only 24th. If this team is going to finish the job and clinch the division, the rotation needs to step it up.

On the flip side, the arm barn owns a 3.65 ERA, sixth-best in baseball. Can you imagine what the White Sox record might look like if the starters had merely been average?

Of course, the offense also needs to get itself together.

Over the past 15 days, the Sox are slashing .220/.318/.379 with a .697 OPS. They have shown patience and a reasonable amount of power, but they have struggled to collect enough hits to sustain rallies. The 98-point difference between their batting average and on-base percentage suggests they are drawing walks, while their .159 isolated power is respectable.

Their .266 BABIP also helps explain the low average. Some of that could be poor batted-ball luck, although weak contact and inconsistent at-bats are likely part of the problem. Either way, the offense has become too dependent on walks and extra-base hits rather than consistently stringing together productive plate appearances.

Tristan Peters and Miguel Vargas have been the brightest spots. Peters is slashing .333/.381/.564 with a .945 OPS over the past 15 days. At the other end is Munetaka Murakami, whose extension price tag keeps slipping lower and lower. He is hitting a paltry .114/.278/.205 with a .483 OPS during that span.

White Sox lineup:

Lake Bachar will serve as the opener for a Pittsburgh bullpen game. The righthander, now in his third major league season, is 1-3 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. This will be his fifth turn as an opener since the Pirates acquired him from Miami at the deadline. In his first four, he allowed only two runs on four hits over 9 2/3 innings. That is pretty darn good.

Bachar’s Savant profile suggests the Sox should arrive with a patient but aggressive-in-the-zone approach. He ranks in the 80th percentile in whiff rate and the 69th percentile in strikeout rate, so this is not a pitcher against whom they should expand the zone or attempt to protect against everything.

However, Bachar ranks in only the 26th percentile in chase rate and the 29th percentile in walk rate. He has not been especially effective at persuading hitters to offer at pitches outside the zone, and his control can create opportunities. The Sox should force him to throw strikes and avoid helping him manufacture quick outs.

Bachar’s curveball is his featured weapon, ranking in the 96th percentile in run value. His four-seamer has also been effective, landing in the 77th percentile, while his overall breaking-ball run value ranks in the 84th. The Sox should not go hunting for the curveball, especially with two strikes. Instead, they should look for a fastball in a specific area early in the count and avoid getting caught between the heater and the breaking ball.

His expected statistics are strong: 72nd percentile in expected ERA, 92nd in expected batting average and 71st in expected slugging. Bachar has also limited hard contact, ranking in the 79th percentile in hard-hit rate. Waiting around indefinitely will not necessarily work, but controlled aggression could. If he puts a hittable four-seamer in the zone, the Sox need to be ready to attack it.

Pittsburgh has been playing good baseball lately. The Pirates are 7-3 over their last 10 games and have won four consecutive series since being swept by the Dodgers. They are slashing .259/.343/.370 with a .713 OPS and .326 BABIP, with Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds all hitting better than .300 over the past seven days.

Pirates lineup:

Martin’s mission is straightforward. He should keep the ball away from the middle of the plate, feature the changeup and sinker and avoid hanging sliders. For the offense, it is about laying off Bachar’s curveball outside the zone, making him throw strikes and attacking the right fastball when it arrives.

Now would be a lovely time for both sides of that plan to come together.

First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. CDT. The game will be televised on CHSN and can be heard on ESPN 1000.