Nebraska basketball has always been an afterthought. It’s a football school (though that has been waning for a while … a conversation for another day).
That football first mentality is a reason the Cornhuskers, somehow, have never won an NCAA tournament game. They’re 0-8 in the first round.
They’ve also never been in a situation like they’re in this year. Nebraska started the season 20-0, got a No. 4 seed and are a 13.5-point favorite in the first round. If the Cornhuskers don’t finally get that tourney win this year, Nebraska fans might start to wonder if it ever will happen.
Here are the first-round picks for the South region with all odds from BetMGM (No. 1 seed Florida isn’t listed; the Gators will play the winner of the Prairie View A&M vs. Lehigh First Four game):
No. 13 Troy (+13.5) over No. 4 Nebraska
When Nebraska was 20-0, everyone wondered if the Cornhuskers would regress. Then they went 6-6 the rest of the way with one win against a tournament team, and that that was at home in overtime against Iowa. You’ll hear a lot this week about how Nebraska has never won a tournament game. While it should beat Troy, the Trojans beat USC and took San Diego State to double overtime, both on the road, earlier this season. They won’t be intimidated by a Nebraska.
No. 5 Vanderbilt (-11.5) over No. 12 McNeese
McNeese is a familiar upset pick. Last year they were one of the rare underdogs to win straight up, beating Clemson as a No. 12 seed. The big difference this season is Vanderbilt is probably better than the normal No. 5 seed. They were under-seeded by the committee. Also, remember this stat: No team in the tournament scored a higher percentage of its points off turnovers than McNeese, and Vanderbilt has the 11th best turnover rate in the sport. Vanderbilt won’t give away those points to McNeese.
No. 11 VCU (+2.5) over No. 6 North Carolina
UNC freshman Caleb Wilson was a fantastic story for most of the season, as his NBA Draft stock went through the roof. Then he suffered a season-ending injury. The Tar Heels were 19-5 with Wilson but just 5-3 without him. They got a tough matchup too, against a VCU team that is 16-1 since Jan. 10. VCU is a good 3-point shooting team, which helps their upset bid.
No. 7 St. Mary’s (-3.5) over No. 10 Texas A&M
Texas A&M was a fun story earlier in the season, when the Aggies were 7-1 in the SEC behind first-year head coach Bucky McMillan and his high-tempo style. But they finished 4-7 as regression hit. St. Mary’s doesn’t play in the SEC so losing seven of 11 is very unlikely, but the Gaels are a rock-solid program that is used to being in the NCAA tournament. They won’t be overwhelmed by SEC talent.
No. 14 Penn (+24.5) over No. 3 Illinois
There has not been a favorite of more than 18 points among No. 3 seeds in the last four NCAA tournaments. Even taking into account how well the top teams have done the last couple tournaments, a spread of -24.5 for a No. 3 seed is a lot. Also, Ivy League teams generally battle in the first round. Ivy teams are 10-4 against the spread in the last 14 tournaments according to Matt Eisenberg’s tournament guide. Illinois can score enough to cover a big spread, but this spread seems like a little too much.
No. 2 Houston (-23.5) over Idaho
This has been common for the top few seeds in the tournament: Houston opened as a 19.5-point favorite and that has moved four points toward the Cougars. Everyone remembers the favorites dominating the tournament last year. Houston is a tough opponent for anyone with their relentless style. And the Big Sky is routinely overmatched in the tournament going 3-10-1 against the spread since 2010 according to Matt Eisenberg’s tournament guide.
No. 9 Iowa (-2.5) over No. 8 Clemson
Iowa really needed to see someone other than a Big Ten opponent. The Hawkeyes were a very disappointing 3-7 down the stretch. But it’s a team that was 31st nationally on offense and 30th defensively at KenPom.com, with a strong point guard with tournament experience in Bennett Stirtz. Clemson was bad down the stretch too, finishing 4-6. That’s what you get with teams this far down in the seeding sometimes. I’ll trust Iowa to hit some shots and get a win.
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