Forgive our dust. It’s looking mighty chalky in many of our experts’ Women’s Bracket Mayhem picks. But, in our defense, it’s simply been that type of year.
There is a clear upper echelon of teams led by undefeated UConn and UCLA, which finished undefeated in Big Ten play. In quick order behind them is SEC champion Texas, which is 3-1 against fellow No. 1 seeds, and SEC runner-up South Carolina, a growing Final Four powerhouse in its own right.
The Sacramento 2 bracket could become chaotic with UCLA, LSU and Duke taking up the top three spots. Texas, meanwhile, might have it easier. In the end, a No. 1 seed has won the last 11 of 13 championships and 32 of 43 overall.
With the NCAA tournament commencing this week in the First Four, here are our initial power rankings.
(In parentheses: region | seed | record | NET rank)
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1. Connecticut (Fort Worth 1 | No. 1 | 34-0 | 1)
The Huskies enter the tournament with the best record, the best player (Sarah Strong), the winningest coach (Geno Auriemma), a WNBA lottery pick (Azzi Fudd) and institutional experience that spans decades. It’s UConn’s title to lose, and it never really mattered which team would end up in their bracket. But since there is a bracket, their biggest challenger will be Vanderbilt in the Elite Eight, should the Commodores make it through. South Carolina is the No. 1 on UConn’s side of the field.
2. Texas (Fort Worth 3 | No. 1 | 31-3 | 4)
The Longhorns are a well-rounded group led by standout two-way fifth-year point guard Rori Harmon and National Player of the Year contender Madison Booker. Their centers hold down the paint, where they prefer to score and shoot an effective 53.2%. It’s 10% better from the field than the Division I average, per CBB Analytics.
Texas is one of the deepest teams in the field alongside UConn and slayed the SEC dragon by toppling South Carolina for the SEC tournament championship, which leap-frogged them to the No. 3 true seed and a spot in the Fort Worth super regional. That home-court advantage will benefit.
3. UCLA (Sacramento 2 | No. 1 | 31-1 | 2)
The Bruins are possibly the most experienced group in the nation, with six seniors leading the way on a team that lost only one game all year: a 76-65 loss to Texas in the semifinals of the Players Era Championship in Las Vegas in November. UCLA was largely uncompetitive in that one, but rolled through the Big Ten schedule unscathed. They also have the best center in the nation in 6-foot-7 Lauren Betts, also a projected WNBA lottery pick.
4. LSU (Sacramento 2 | No. 2 | 27-5 | 5)
The Tigers are one of the most potent offenses in NCAA Division I history with a star guard group of Flau’jae Johnson, Mikaylah Williams, MiLayshia Fulwiley and Jada Richard. When they are clicking together, they can be unstoppable. The first test could come in the Sweet 16 with Duke, a team they defeated in the non-conference slate but that has come farther all these months later.
5. South Carolina (Sacramento 4 | No. 2 | 31-3 | 3)
The Gamecocks haven’t missed the Final Four since 2019, the tournament played pre-COVID-19 pandemic. Their drop in these rankings is strictly due to being on the same side as UConn, a deeper squad than the one rolled out in Columbia.
Senior guard Raven Johnson earned SEC Defensive Player of the Year, helming a squad that finished back in the top-10 of defensive rating. She’s head coach Dawn Staley’s go-to player down the stretch of tight games.
6. Duke (Sacramento 2 | No. 3 | 24-8 | 8)
This region is all-caps stacked, which could make it the most chaotic region of the bunch. Duke rebounded from its 3-6 non-conference start to run nearly unscathed through the ACC field. Still, they are the great unknown since the ACC hasn’t pulled the weight of the SEC or Big Ten.
Kara Lawson’s crew is always built on defense; at times, it has wavered at key points, but when it’s at its best, it could stifle an LSU or UCLA offense. Toby Fournier is the go-to forward (17.3 ppg), while the offense often goes as senior guard Taina Mair does.
7. Louisville (Fort Worth 3 | No. 3 | 27-7 | 11)
Louisville is a squad that can sneak up on a person. The Cardinals are a by-committee offense, a vision that has worked to this point, but might have met its match when it comes time to find a main driver. They rank top-15 in net rating (25.6) and nearly upset Duke in the ACC tournament title game.
Head coach Jeff Walz always has his teams in a good spot. They are in the top-four seed line for the first time since 2022. The ceiling is likely the Elite Eight given the spot in the Texas bracket, yet an upset of a smaller Michigan squad is very much on the table.
8. Iowa (Sacramento 4 | No. 2 | 26-6 | 10)
The Hawkeyes are back to hosting first-weekend games again, and at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, that’s a massive advantage that can propel them deep into March. The two-big punch of senior Hannah Stuelke, a key contributor on the Final Four teams, and sophomore Ava Heiden, a blossoming center in a program that’s historically developed great ones, can cause trouble for South Carolina should they meet in the Elite Eight.
It would be a rematch of the 2023 Final Four upset by Iowa and the 2024 national title game win by South Carolina.
9. Michigan (Fort Worth 3 | No. 2 | 25-6 | 6)
The Wolverines have come close to taking out the season’s best teams, losing by three points each to UCLA, UConn and Vanderbilt. The sophomore trio of Olivia Olson, Syla Swords and Mila Holloway makes for a potent offense, and their young fearlessness can be a weapon to their advantage.
But the Wolverines slid to end the season and are on the small side. There is no clear center to take control in the paint, forcing the guards to play at their best to pull off upsets.
10. Vanderbilt (Fort Worth 1 | No. 2 | 27-4 | 7)
Rolling out one of the best and most prolific scorers in the nation can take a program far, and Vanderbilt has that in Mikayla Blakes. She led the Commodores in scoring all five games, and three of them were non-conference blowouts. Slowing down Blakes is the key to ousting Vanderbilt, dropping them down the line of contenders as defenses can lock in on that. But the real reason the Commodores are down this far is that it’s difficult to envision them defeating a UConn squad built on depth, particularly after their issues with Ole Miss in the SEC tournament upset that dropped them fully out of contention for a No. 1 seed.
11. TCU ( Sacramento 4 | No. 3 | 29-5 | 12)
Mark Campbell utilizes the transfer portal well every season to build a contending team in a pro, pick-and-roll style offense. Olivia Miles, a projected WNBA lottery pick, leads the way this time with Marta Suarez in the paint.
The Horned Frogs have the offense to move along and will be hungry after the way their season ended a year ago, plus that West Virginia swooped in to win the Big 12 tournament title. That loss also pushed TCU down the true seed line, and they didn’t receive placement in a Fort Worth regional that would have kept them home until the Final Four.
12. Oklahoma (Sacramento 4 | No. 4 | 24-7 | 13)
The Sooners run through Raegan Beers in the paint and freshman Aaliyah Chavez at the point guard position. If Chavez is off, they’ve struggled. Against South Carolina, Chavez poured in 15 of her 26 points in overtime to hand the Gamecocks their only regular-season SEC loss of the season. So they have the blueprint and could get by South Carolina if that Sweet 16 matchup comes to pass.
13. West Virginia (Fort Worth 3 | No. 4 | 27-6 | 18)
Welcome, West Virginia, back to hosting duties. The Mountaineers already have a special season with the most wins since 2014 and the third-most since at least 2009-10. They like to keep the pressure on, which would be an interesting watch if they meet Texas in the Sweet 16.
The Mountaineers quite infamously defeated Duke early in the season with only five players available to play after six were ejected in the first half. It earned them the nickname, “Greenbrier Five,” and a sense of belief that could lead one deep into March.
14. Minnesota (Sacramento 2 | No. 4 | 22-8 | 9)
The Golden Gophers flew under the radar in a Big Ten dominated by UCLA, and followed in short order by known programs Iowa and Michigan. They are in the tournament for the first time since 2018 and hosting for the first time since 2005. The knock against Minnesota throughout most of the schedule was that it lacked a significant win; then it upset Iowa and Ohio State in the regular season. Five players are averaging double digits, with Grace Grocholski shooting 42.3% from 3.
15. North Carolina (Fort Worth 1 | No. 4 | 23-8 | 14)
UNC led the ACC in 3-point shooting and is stout defensively, splitting regular-season games with Duke and nearly taking out Louisville in the ACC tournament semifinals. If freshman Nyla Brooks, UCLA transfer Elina Aarnisalo and Lanie Grant are all shooting the ball well, they could make it to a meeting with UConn in the Sweet 16.
16. Kentucky (Fort Worth 3 | No. 5 |23-10 | 16)
The SEC is so deep that Kentucky, a team on the edge of earning a top-4 seed line in the NCAA tournament, had to play on the first day of the SEC tournament. In the end, the everyday cadence of games caught up to them in a loss to South Carolina. Clara Strack is a do-everything forward with a nasty turnaround jumper, while transfer Tonie Morgan is one of the best point guards in the nation. The Wildcats ended up deeper down the SEC line because Teonni Key, the standout center, missed time due to injury.
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